The wait for one of the most anticipated Final Four games in history is nearly over, as Michigan basketball will battle Arizona on Saturday night in Indianapolis for a berth in the national title game.
Michigan and Arizona are each ranked among the top five in KenPom's all-time rankings. Meaning these are two of the best teams, analytically, of the Kenpom era.
They each have top-five offenses and defenses, according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are also two of the biggest teams in college basketball, although Illinois is the tallest.
Both teams generally own the paint on both ends of the floor. So tonight, it will be strength vs. strength. As far as the odds are concerned, a final look on the day of the game has Michigan basketball listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The over/under is 157.5, and the moneyline is -122 for Michigan and +102 for the Wildcats.
Final prediction for Michigan vs. Arizona
After studying this matchup at length, it feels like a true toss-up. Arizona is incredibly talented, just as Michigan is. They don't shoot the 3-point shot at as high of a volume as Michigan, but the Wildcats also get to the free-throw line more regularly and dominate on the offensive glass.
Their formula is similar to Tennessee's. Arizona has more talent. Brayden Burries (6-4) and Jaden Bradley (6-3) are dynamic players in the backcourt. Burries shoots 40 percent on 3-pointers and 50 percent overall, while scoring 16.1 points per game. Bradley is the playmaker and Big 12 Player of the Year.
The frontcourt is equally formidable with elite freshman Koa Peat (6-8), Ivan Kharchenkov (6-7), another freshman who played in the Euroleague, and Motiejus Krivas, a 7-foot-2 big man who averages 1.9 blocks and 3.5 offensive rebounds per game, but none of their three forwards shoot the ball from deep with any consistent level of success, all at 31 percent or below.
Arizona starts three freshmen, although as Dusty May pointed out, Kharchenkov isn't really a freshman since he played in the Euroleague. The point remains that Michigan is a more veteran team.
Of all the talented players on the court, Yaxel Lendeborg is still the best. He's been the best player in the NCAA Tournament. That's what he needs to be on Saturday.
Everyone else will need to bring it, too, especially Trey McKenney off the bench. He's going to need to hit some shots from deep and in the mid-range. March Roddy Gayle needs to make another appearance, too. Aday Mara and Morez Johnson at least have to stalemate.
If there were three keys to a Michigan victory, they would be limiting offensive rebounds, limiting free throws, and shooting well from deep. The Wolverines shot at least 46 percent from 3-point range in the first three NCAA Tournament games. They dropped to 37 percent against Tennessee, but if the Wolverines keep up their hot shooting from deep, it could be what pushes them over the top.
It won't be for the faint of heart. It's going to be a physical battle. But Michigan has Yaxel. Arizona doesn't, so the Wolverines will move on to Monday night.
Prediction: Michigan 69, Arizona 65.
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