The betting odds have Michigan as the slightest of favorites in its colossal Final Four showdown with Arizona, a game many have dubbed the National Championship Game, with UConn and Illinois set to square off on the other side. Duke belonged in their tier in the regular season, but once the NCAA Tournament began, Michigan and Arizona have been on a level completely their own.
The margins between Dusty May’s Wolverines and Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats couldn’t be slimmer, and with two teams that like to do a lot of the same things, simple math could be the ultimate deciding factor on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Dusty May and Tommy Lloyd both built teams with incredibly high floors
One of the biggest reasons that we haven’t seen as many upsets in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons is that the best coaches in the sport have built teams that are largely impervious to the shooting variance that often allows Cinderella to punch up against a top seed. Michigan and Arizona are two perfect examples of the sport’s burgeoning ethos.
Both teams have supersized lineups that dominate in the paint and at the rim, getting easy shots on the offensive end and denying them at the other. That, along with a significant offensive rebounding advantage, provides an incredibly high floor of offensive success. With the talent May and Lloyd have amassed, their floor seems to be higher than just about any other team’s ceiling.
If rim dominance and rebounding set the floor, shooting often determines the ceiling, and in all three of Michigan’s losses this year, it has played a major role. Wisconsin went bombs away with 15 threes to down Michigan for the first time in January, and while neither Duke nor Purdue shot it particularly well, Michigan shot a combined 13-49 (26.5 percent) in those games.
If those shots aren’t falling, Michigan is vulnerable. But at least the Wolverines take them, averaging 25.2 three-point attempts per game to Arizona’s 16.0 (363rd of 365 DI teams). The Wildcats have been able to beat everyone else without the three, and they do shoot it well, knocking down 36.7 percent for the year.
Michigan’s ceiling might be the slightest bit higher
Arizona is No. 3 in rebound differential, and Michigan is No. 8. Arizona is No. 4 in points in the paint, and Michigan is No. 10. Both teams attempt about 40 percent of their shots at the rim, shoot over 65 percent, and hold opponents well under 60. It’ll be an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object at the rim on both ends of the floor, all night.
In a game that’s so evenly matched where both teams tend to separate themselves, the outcome could be as simple as three-point variance, the very thing both coaches built their teams to avoid. Michigan, though, has the variance dial turned up a little bit more simply from the sheer volume of its attempts compared to Arizona, and that might mean, while its floor is slightly lower, its ceiling is just that much higher on Saturday night. And this is a ceiling game. The high floor is to get to the matchup without tripping up. The higher ceiling team is probably the right bet to win it.
Whether Tommy Lloyd likes it or not, and credit to him for building a team that doesn't rely on outside shooting, three is more than two. So if Michigan is hitting from outside, Arizona may not be able to match it. At least without going outside of itself and suddenly shooting more threes 38 games into the season.