3 things that could derail Michigan basketball in the NCAA Tournament

Three things that could derail the Wolverines in the NCAA tournament.
Mar 8, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Michigan State Spartans center Carson Cooper (15) is defended by Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Mar 8, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans center Carson Cooper (15) is defended by Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Michigan basketball has one more day before it enters the fray in the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines will play either Iowa or Ohio State on Friday in the quarterfinals.

We have broken down some adjustments that could help the Wolverines cut down the nets this week. Michigan is aiming to defend its Big Ten tournament title.

However, the biggest goal is to win the national championship. After the Michigan State win, Dusty May told his team there were nine games left to play.

For the third-ranked Wolverines, it feels like national title or bust. Michigan has already put together one of the best Big Ten seasons ever. This is one of the greatest Big Ten teams of all time.

Michigan hasn't won the national championship in 37 years, though, and here are three things that could derail the Wolverines in the 2026 NCAA tournament.

Aday Mara foul trouble

It would be fascinating to play the Duke game against without Mara getting into foul trouble. Michigan's defense just isn't the same without him on the floor. The offense isn't either.

Mara is an underrated playmaker. He's also a shot creator, because most of the time, when he's guarded one-on-one, he's going to score. His real impact is defensively and on the boards.

The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year is the best rim protector in college basketball. He also has a propensity for fouls. He sat for 12 minutes on Saturday with two fouls, and also missed some key minutes against Duke.

Mara gets some silly fouls at times, too. He got three on Sunday against the Spartans. With only five fouls, foul trouble is something that can impact the game. It can take one of the Wolverines best players off the floor, and it's a situation Dusty May has to manage well if it comes up.

Foul trouble cost Michigan the national championship in 2013. It's not crazy to think it could happen again.

Turnovers

Michigan basketball averages 12.2 turnovers per game, which is ranked 255th overall. During Big Ten games, the Wolverines turned it over 11.6 times per game (17th out of 18 teams).

Part of it is that Michigan plays at a fast tempo. That can lead to more turnovers. It doesn't help that backup point guard LJ Cason is out for the season with an injury. Elliot Cadeau has been stellar this season, but he can be turnover prone.

If there is another thing that can take down Michigan, it's Cadeau and the Wolverines struggling to take care of the ball. U-M beat Iowa by three points, and its 18 turnovers were a huge reason why Iowa had a chance to pull the upset.

Cold shooting

The other lingering issue for Michigan at times this season has been 3-point shooting. During Big Ten play, the Wolverines shot 37.5 percent from deep, which was third in the league.

However, in the loss to Duke, Michigan shot 26 percent from 3-point range. The Wolverines shot just 32 percent against Wisconsin. They also shot under 30 percent in close wins over TCU and Wake Forest. TCU is headed to the big dance. Wake isn't, and the Wolverines nearly lost after shooting under 25 percent from 3-point range.

The 3-point shooting has been much more consistent. Trey McKenney has been a huge part of that. Yaxel Lendeborg has turned it around, too, after a mid-season slump.

However, if the Wolverines shoot under 30 percent in an NCAA tournament game, it could cost them.

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