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Saint Louis is frightening as Michigan's next NCAA Tournament opponent

Saint Louis is exactly the kind of team Michigan basketball didn't want to see early in the NCAA Tournament.
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Saint Louis Billikens center Robbie Avila (21) dribbles the ball against Georgia Bulldogs forward Justin Abson (25) during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Saint Louis Billikens center Robbie Avila (21) dribbles the ball against Georgia Bulldogs forward Justin Abson (25) during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Michigan basketball had a stellar outing offensively against Howard, scoring 101 points. Saint Louis, the opponent for Saturday's NCAA Tournament second round, scored 102.

That was in a 102-77 win over Georgia that sent the ninth-seeded Billikens into a matchup with top-seeded Michigan.

The Wolverines allowed 46 points against Howard in the first half. Michigan basketball surrendered 10 triples in the first half to Howard, and 14 3-point shots overall at a 46 percent clip.

If that doesn't worry Michigan basketball fans, it should. It was the second lackluster game in a row for the Wolverines on defense, which isn't a great sign with Saint Louis looming on Saturday in the round of 32.

This team is no joke. They aren't just good on offense either. Saint Louis is 32nd overall, according to Kenpom, with the No. 43 adjusted offense and the No. 35 adjusted defense. The Billikens are the second-best 3-point shooting team in college basketball (40.2 percent). They are also one of the best teams at defending the 3-point shot, allowing just 29.4 percent (5th). That's in addition to the best field-goal percentage defense overall in college basketball, allowing just 37.9 percent.

Not only that, Saint Louis has the No. 12 2-point offense (59,9 percent) and the 4th-best 2-point defense (43.8). It's an impressive stat profile for a team that starts four guards, and only has three players listed at 6-foot-7 or taller.

Obviously, the A-10 is much different than the Big Ten. Saint Louis hasn't seen many teams like Michigan. The game against Georgia was only the second Power-4 matchup for Saint Louis this season. The Billikens dropped the other matchup, which was against Stanford. The Cardinal shot just 29 percent on 2-pointers but owned the 3-point battle.

Saint Louis is a bad matchup for Michigan basketball

If there is a lower-seeded team out there that could beat Michigan, it felt like it would need to be a team like Saint Louis, which makes 10.9 3-pointers per game (10th in college basketball). They are also 10th in college basketball with 18,.7 assists per game.

Robbie Avila, a 6-foot-10 center who has had NCAA Tournament success before, is the leading scorer for Saint Louis with 12.9 points per game. He's shooting 50.9 percent overall but 61 percent on twos and 41 percent on threes.

Avila is surrounded by guards. There isn't another center on the roster, and only two others in the rotation listed at forwards. Trey Green scores 11.1 per game and shoots 45.7 percent from deep, which was the best mark in the A-10.

Green is one of five players who play more than 20 minutes, shooting better than 40 percent from 3-point range for Saint Louis, which is probably licking its chops after watching Howard hit 14 from beyond the arc on Thursday.

Saint Louis can run a five-out offense, just like Wisconsin, which buried 16 3-pointers against Michigan basketball in the Big Ten semifinals.

All that being said, Saint Louis has to guard Michigan, too. The Wolverines might need to play smaller at times, but they might also force Avila and Saint Louis to deal with Aday Mara.

Mara sat for 10 minutes against Howard in the first half. Yet, he should have a bigger role in this game because of his rim protection and his ability to score, as well as make plays for others.

What's interesting is that Michigan could even play Yaxel at the five if needed. The Wolverines could easily trot out a four-guard lineup. So there are conundrums U-M can cause for Saint Louis, too.

But if there a team I wouldn't want Michigan basketball to play in the second round, it would be a team like Saint Louis, especially with the way the Wolverines have defended the past three games.

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