3 things that will decide Michigan's Top-10 showdown with Illinois

It has been a rollercoaster run of games for Wolverines fans. First, it was the thrill of a satisfying win on the road against Purdue. Then the crushing close loss to a championship-caliber Duke team in Washington D.C., and most recently, a muted 10-point win against an undermanned Minnesota team at Crisler earlier this week, which was a great deal closer than anyone expected.

But all of that gets pushed to the background tonight.

The matchup between Michigan basketball and Illinois this evening has so much at stake. The Wolverines have lost nine straight against the Illini; their last win was in 2019. Dusty May’s team can turn that all around with a win at the State Farm Center in Champaign.

Not only would a win erase an ugly losing streak, it would also clinch the Big Ten title outright. If that happens, it would be the first such conference championship for Michigan since the 2020-21 season, the second under Juwan Howard.

But for that to happen here are three key areas that Michigan must win to achieve Big Ten glory.

The Battle on the Boards

Illinois is first in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding at 12.3 per game. That’s due largely to their size at all positions. That’s a problem as the Wolverines uncharacteristically struggled against Duke on the glass. They were outrebounded 41-28 in the nation’s capital, including surrendering 13 Blue Devil offensive boards that led to 18 second-chance points in a very close game.

This was largely due to early foul trouble for both Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. who were off the floor for large chunks of the contest. But Illinois has the bodies and the talent to put pressure on Michigan’s front court, as good as it may be.

One need look no further than freshman phenom Keaton Wagler, who is averaging 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game while shooting 41.2% from 3-point range. His ability to slash to the basket, draw contact, and finish in the paint might be a problem for the Wolverines’ bigs, as they will have to find ways to guard the paint while also minimizing the good looks the Illini get from deep.

Shooting from Distance

Illinois averages 11.3 made 3-pointers per game, 3.4 more made shots than the 7.9 per game Michigan allows. Put simply, something has to give.

Wagler is a difference maker here as well, as he shoots 42% from behind the 3-point line. He is not alone, however, as Jake Davis and Illini forward David Mirkovic also shoot above 39% from distance, meaning that any combination of lineups can be lethal for Illinois.

The Wolverines on the other hand ranks 8th nationally in opponent three-point field goal percentage, holding teams to just 29.5% from beyond the arc. Their perimeter defense is elite, but will have to contend with Illinois’ length, something that has been difficult for so many in the Big 10 this season. Again, so much of this depends on the ability to keep Michigan’s bigs on the floor to protect the rim and limit drives to the basket that could lead to quality looks for Illinois, something that didn’t happen against Minnesota as the Gophers clocked in at over 35% shooting from distance.

The Battle of the Tall Towers

Michigan basketball is used to being the biggest team on the floor, and they have been for most of the year. But overall, Illinois is the tallest team in the nation, which accounts for their rebounding prowess. That size also extends to their backcourt.

Wagler is listed at 6 feet 6 inches, while Elliot Cadeau is barely 6-1. Andrej Stojaković is 6 feet 7 inches, taller than any guard the Wolverines have to match him. And even in the front court Illinois is formidable, with two players in Zvonimir Ivišić (7-2) and Tomislav Ivišić (7-1) that can battle down low with 7-foot 3-inch Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr.

It will be a titanic battle in the paint, no doubt. But the Wolverines have the edge offensively when it comes to their big men. And the X-factor, of course, is Yaxel Lendeborg, who is the most versatile player on the court and can guard virtually any position if the occasion calls for it.

How Does It Play Out?

Illinois has the size, the shooting, and the offensive firepower to hang with Michigan all the way. And they have home court advantage.

The Wolverines are hungry to prove their loss to Duke was just a bump in the road towards contention for a national championship.

Michigan’s guards have a lot to prove after their struggles this past weekend and they will have their hands full on both ends of the floor in Champaign. But if they can match Illinois’ ability to hit outside shots this could be the signature win that both clinches an outright confidence title and propels this team towards its ultimate goal in the NCAA tournament