For the first time this season, Michigan basketball will take on Illinois. The Fighting Illini have become a rival of sorts for the Wolverines simply because the Wolverines haven't beaten them in such a long time.
Juwan Howard didn't win a single game against Illinois. Brad Underwood had his number and it will be interesting to see how Dusty May fares against one of the best programs in the conference.
Michigan basketball has a better record. The Wolverines are alive in the Big Ten race, but Illinois (18-11, 10-8) is ranked two spots higher in the Kenpom rankings. Michigan has won a lot of games, but their last eight wins have come by four points or less.
It's hard to win that many close games in a row. Illinois had lost three games in a row before a 20-point win over Iowa. Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all beat the Illini by double digits, but those are three of the best teams in college basketball.
Kasparas Jakucionis is one of the best players in the Big Ten. He's scoring 15.3 points per game, dishing out 4.8 assists, and making 1.6 3-pointers per game. Illinois shoots more 3-pointers than any team in the Big Ten.
Michigan shoots a lot, too, but neither team has been making them, and that's where we'll begin with three keys and a prediction for Michigan vs. Illinois.
Be competitive at the 3-point line
Illinois hasn't been shooting the ball well, but that's not going to last forever. Illinois always seems to shoot the ball against Michigan, and we'll see what Michigan can do on the defensive end.
The Fighting Illini have a ball-screen-heavy offense. Jakucionis is the maestro of the offense, and he's capable of going off.
Regardless of how Illinois shoots the ball, I have a hard time believing Michigan basketball can win this game and shoot below 25 percent from 3-point range. It would help if Rubin Jones would return, even though he wasn't shooting the ball well anyway.
Will Tschetter has gotten more minutes. Hopefully, Nimari Burnett's confidence will be boosted after his game-winner, but the Wolverines have to start shooting the ball better, or they aren't going to win the Big Ten title, plain and simple.
Win in the paint
Michigan can't get outscored by 15-20 points at the 3-point line and win. But as long as that doesn't happen, the 2-point defense of Illinois will determine the outcome.
lllinois has the best 2-point defense in the Big Ten, allowing teams to make just 46.3 percent of their shots. Illinois is third in blocks. They don't allow many assists and while they don't force tons of turnovers, they make it tough around the rim.
That being said, Michigan basketball has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten when scoring inside. Vlad Goldin leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage. Michigan basketball is fourth in the conference. Illinois is 3-7 when teams shoot better than 47 percent on 2-point percentage, according to UMHoops.com, so keep an eye on that. If Michigan can't score inside, they are likely to lose.
Lock in on defense
Shooting and scoring will be important. However, the biggest issue for the Wolverines over the years against Illinois has been defense.
Jakucionis is capable of dominating games. Illinois has players who can shoot 1 through 5, so that's something you have to be ready for. Brad Underwood is one of the best coaches in the conference and the defensive chess match will be interesting on both ends.
Keeping Illinois under 1.1 points per possession is a realistic goal that should allow the Wolverines to win the game.
Prediction: Michigan 77, Illinois 71
Michigan will get a boost in energy from the win over Rutgers. The Wolverines will need it because this is their fourth game in nine days.
Yet, Illinois is struggling. They rebounded against Iowa, but Michigan will take advantage inside. Goldin has a huge game, and the Wolverines squeak out another win.