Michigan basketball returns to the NCAA tournament as the Big Ten tournament champion on Thursday night in Denver with many expecting an upset by UC San Diego.
The Tritons are ranked in the top 40 of the Kenpom rankings and are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball. They also force a ton of turnovers and boast 6-foot-6 playmaker Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones.
Tait-Jones scores 19.5 points per game and averages nearly four assists. The Tritons essentially play a five-out system and most players can shoot. All seven players that played in all 34 games and average at least 13 minutes a game shoot at least 30 percent from 3-point range.
Tyler McGhie makes 3.8 3-pointers per game and shoots 38 percent. Hayden Gray, who led the Big Ten West with 109 steals this season, also shoots 42 percent from deep.
It's a challenging matchup. Michigan basketball is a 2.5-point favorite. We covered the keys to a win earlier this week, as well as why Michigan is a team that can make a run.
But looking ahead to Thursday's game which is less than 24 hours away, here are three bold predictions.
Michigan will make more 3-pointers than UC San Diego
This is a two-part prediction. For one, Michigan is going to bother the Tritons with their length. They also switch one through four, so I don't expect the Tritons to get as many open looks as they are used to.
One the defensive side, UC San Diego allows 7.8 3-pointers per game and more than 23 attempts per game. Those both ranked outside the top 200. With Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, the defense should be even more focused on double teams and helping down, which should lead to a bunch of open looks.
Michigan hasn't shot the ball well, but was better in the Big Ten tournament. Nimari Burnett, Tre Donaldson, Will Tschetter, and even Rubin Jones will hit from deep as the Wolverines will make more 3-point field goals than their upset-minded opponent.
Michigan dominates the offensive glass
UC San Diego is elite at forcing turnovers. Michigan is terrible at taking care of the ball. That's probably not going to change overnight. Anything under 10 would be a huge win.
However, as we saw against Maryland, Michigan can use its size to help overcome the turnovers with offensive rebounds. Michigan dominated on the glass in that game, overcoming 16 turnovers.
Since UC San Diego only has two players on the roster taller than 6-foot-10, it's not a huge surprise that they allow 9.3 offensive boards per game and rank 174th in defensive rebounding.
Remember, that's against the Big West, not a Big Ten team like Michigan, so my bold prediction is 10 or more offensive rebounds for Michigan (closer to 12).
Wolf and Goldin combine for 40
If Michigan basketball is going to win this game, Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf need to play well. It's as simple as that. The Wolverines should have a big advantage in the paint.
Goldin, if he can catch the ball in his spots, should have a field day. There isn't anyone on this roster that has a prayer against him in one-on-one situations. Wolf causes similar problems. As a guard, wing, or post-up player, Wolf should be a scorer and creator for Michigan on Thursday night.
If those guys struggle for Michigan, an upset is likely, but I'm guessing that when it's all said and done, they'll combine for close to 40 points and 20 rebounds.