Despite notching 12 quad-1 victories, a Big Ten tournament championship, and beating three ranked teams in a row last week, Michigan basketball earned a five seed in the NCAA tournament.
The reward for the Wolverines is a matchup against UC San Diego, a 30-4 team that is "underseeded" even according to Michigan basketball head coach Dusty May.
The Tritons are dangerous. Seth Davis of CBS Sports predicted them to reach the Sweet 16 on live tv when the bracket was announced. We'll see if that ends up being true or not, but the Wolverines are slight favorites going into Thursday's game in Denver.
It will be the first NCAA tournament game for Michigan basketball since 2022. It's also the first-ever NCAA tournament game for the Tritons. The Wolverines are a trendy pick to be upset, however, there are also reasons to believe Michigan can make a run.
In terms of Thursday's game, here's all the key info including the odds, how to watch, and a prediction.
Michigan vs. UC San Diego odds
According to oddsmakers, Michigan basketball is a -2.5 point favorite against UC San Diego in Thursday's game. The over/under is 142.5. The moneyline is -148 for Michigan basketball and +124 for the Tritons.
How to watch Michigan vs. UC San Diego in NCAA tournament
Date: March 20th
Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
Venue: Ball Arena/Denver
How to Watch: CBS | FUBO TV
Michigan basketball vs. UC San Diego Prediction
Michigan has the closest line of any five seed in the tournament and it's easy to understand why. UC San Diego is led Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones who is similar to Danny Wolf, scoring 19.5 points per game. He also averages 3.7 assists and shoots 60 percent on 2-point attempts.
The Tritons shoot 36.6 percent from 3-point range. they have four or five shooters surrounding Tait-Jones. Michigan's strategy is likely to force Tait-Jones to make one-on-one plays.
The Tritons are a very good team. But Michigan is too. The Wolverines are also a tough matchup with two seven-footers who can run the pick-and-roll together.
Michigan's defense was stellar during the Big Ten tournament and will need to be on point once again. The shooting was better during the tournament, too, and as long as that continues, Michigan should avoid the upset.
Turnovers are critical. UC San Diego is fourth best team in college basketball at forcing turnovers and Michigan is one of the worst teams in college basketball at protecting the ball. If the Wolverines limit their turnovers to 10 or fewer, they will move on.