UC San Diego trending as an upset pick over Michigan basketball

Anything can happen in the NCAA tournament. Michigan basketball fans know that as well as anyone, but hopefully, the Wolverines won't fall victim to an upset on Thursday in the first round of the big dance against UC San Diego.

The Tritons are making their NCAA tournament debut. Michigan basketball is returning for the first time since 2022, when the Wolverines were knocked out of the Sweet 16 by Villanova.

This season, the Tritons won 30 games, in addition to winning the Big West regular-season and conference tournament titles.

Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a dangerous 6-foot-6 wing from New Zealand who scored 19.6 points per game this season on 57 percent shooting from the field. He can shoot the ball from deep, but takes most of his attempts on 2-pointers and connects on over 60 percent.

Of course, as Wisconsin learned Sunday in the Big Ten title game, or John Tonje at least, who went just 1-of-14, shooting against a team with Michigan's length can be difficult, especially because UC San Diego won't be used to it.

UC Irvine has a 7-footer. But it doesn't have two or anybody anywhere close to as good as Vlad Goldin or Danny Wolf.

Some experts think Michigan basketball will be upset

So why did Seth Davis of CBS Sports immediately picked Michigan basketball to be upset? The turnovers are a big reason why. Michigan was the worst team in the Big Ten in that regard and one of the worst teams in college basketball in turnover rate.

UC San Diego is also trending as a betting favorite among upset picks.

UC San Diego will double-down aggressively hunting steals and ranked fourth in all of college basketball with 9.9 per game. And while Tait-Jones isn't great 3-point shooter, he's a great creator, is surrounded by shooters, and dishes out 3.7 assists per game.

Tyler McGhie makes 3.8 3-pointers per game on 8.7 attempts per contest. Shooting 38 percent on that volume is impressive. Three others who played in all 34 games average better than a 3-point field goal per game.

So if the Tritons are knocking down 3-pointers and forcing turnovers, it's a recipe for success. But Michigan basketball held Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue to a combined 21 percent from 3-point range. The Wolverines also had fewer than 10 turnovers in two of those three games.

Michigan struggled against Maryland in that department but dominated on the boards to overcome it. The Tritons will be a tough opponent. Hell, every team is tough in this tournament, but the Tritons have a lot of things people look for in a sleeper, so expect them to continue as a trendy pick to beat Michigan basketball on Thursday.