Michigan basketball will return to the NCAA tournament on Thursday after a two-year absence. The Wolverines will square off against UC San Diego.
Both teams were under-seeded. It's interesting because Michigan had a strong case to earn a better seed than Wisconsin, Purdue, and Maryland. The Wolverines beat the Badgers twice away from home, had three more quad-1 wins, and also finished higher in the regular season standings.
UC San Diego also probably shouldn't be a 12-seed. Not if the committee used the same logic it used to seed those other teams higher than Michigan. At any rate, this should be a second-round matchup, not a first.
Regardless, the bracket is what it is. But here are three reasons to be optimistic that Michigan basketball can make a run to the second weekend.
The defense
UC San Diego will be tough. The Tritons are 30-4 and have one of the most dynamic players in the tournament. At the same time, how many points would Danny Wolf average in the Big West? Or Vlad Goldin? Just saying.
The Big Ten is a little different and the Tritons will have to adapt quickly to Michigan's length. The Wolverines can play two 7-footers. Yet, they also have long wings in Nimari Burnett and Rubin Jones, even Roddy Gayle, capable of guarding Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the Big West Player of the Year.
He scores 19.5 points per game and shoots 60 percent on 2-point attempts. However, Burnett was able to hold John Tonje to 1-of-14 from the field. Michigan also held the Badgers under 1.0 points per possession. Even Purdue and Maryland scored just 1.03 and 1.07.
Michigan can live with any of those numbers on Thursday night. UC San Diego is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball. They are 37th nationaly in 3-point percentage. Yet, Purdue and Wisconsin can shoot it too, also Maryland, and the Wolverines held those three teams to a combined 21 percent from 3-point range.
UC San Diego is also one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (291st) so that's an issue U-M shouldn't have to worry about.
It won't be easy but if Michigan can defend the way it did during the Big Ten tournament, there's a strong chance this team will be playing in the Sweet 16. The Wolverines also enter the tournament with the 14th-best adjusted defense according to Kenpom.
Michigan is a matchup nightmare in its own right
UC San Diego is a tough draw. There's no question about that, but Michigan also isn't a normal five seed. The Wolverines have 11 quad-1 wins and they know how to close out games.
That's not why Michigan is a tough matchup, though. The Wolverines two, talented, 7-footers make them a tough matchup.
Most teams in the Big Ten struggle to match up. It's especially difficult when one of those 7-footers can play like a point guard and shoot the ball like a guard, as Danny Wolf can.
How will UC San Diego defend the 7-foot pick-and-roll? What about Yale or Texas A&M? First things first, of course, and no one should assume a win on Thursday or ever in this tournament. Everyone is vulnerable in this era of college basketball.
But the Tritons have played one game against an NCAA tournament team (San Diego State, loss). They have played a team UC Irvine, with a 7-footer, but I doubt they have played one as skill as Michigan's pair. Goldin led the Big Ten in field-goal percentage by the way.
Earlier in the season, Michigan was shooting it was from 3 as well the Tritons were. Those days are gone. Yet, the ice-cold shooting seems to be gone too, so this offense is going to be tough to stop, regardless of the opponent.
And if Michigan does make 3-pointers, even like 35 percent, it's game over.
Mark my words, if Michigan gets hot from beyond the arc, it could reach the Final Four. I don't expect either of those things to happen, I'm just saying, don't let the Wolverines get hot.
Tre Donaldson is confident again
The most important development last weekend, even more than the defense, was the re-emergence of Tre Donaldson.
Not only did he hit a game-winner against Maryland, he scored in double figures in all three games. He drilled a massive 3-pointer down the stretch against Wisconsin and was great against Purdue.
Donaldson didn't take over as a scorer, except when he had to, but averaged 12 points and seven assists per game after having 22 total assists compared to just seven turnovers. He also had four steals in three games, didn't miss a free throw and shot 35 percent from 3-point range.
If he does that this week, Michigan has a great chance to play another.