We've reached the round of 32! Michigan basketball takes on Texas A&M today with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
A year ago, being in this position would have seemed like a dream. But this is reality for the Wolverines, and it seems like the future will only get brighter.
For now, however, Michigan basketball is focused on its matchup against Texas A&M. On paper, this doesn't seem like a great matchup for Michigan. The Aggies have a great defense, ranking No. 8 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.
What's even worse for Michigan is that the Aggies are incredible at getting offensive rebounds. They're the best offensive-rebounding team in the nation, getting rebounds on 40 percent of their missed shots. That's unreal, and considering that Michigan only out-rebounded UCSD, whose tallest player is only 6'8, 43-37. Michigan has had rebounding issues all season, and Texas A&M is going to look to take advantage of that.
So on paper, this isn't a great matchup. What does Michigan basketball need to do in order to come away with a win and advance to the Sweet 16?
Rebound, Rebound, Rebound
Yes, I just said that the Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. That isn't because they're bigger than everyone, they just attack the glass with aggression. Michigan will again have a big size advantage. Against Yale, Texas A&M had one starter listed at 6'8. That was their tallest starter.
Off the bench, 6'9 Pharrel Payne was the best player for the Aggies in the first round, putting up 25 points and 10 rebounds. But he was the tallest Aggie to enter the game. Michigan, again, has a huge size advantage. This is something they can take advantage of if they crash the glass and box out their guys when the Aggies are on offense.
We've seen that Michigan can rebound when it's a focus. Look back to the Maryland game in the Big Ten Tournament, when Michigan won the rebounding battle 47-18. The Wolverines need that kind of effort. And if they get it, things should go well.
Make open threes
The Aggies are very good defensively, yes, but they also give up a lot of open shots. They play a very aggressive and physical kind of defense. Michigan likely won't be able to win by throwing the ball to the post every possession. The Aggies are going to collapse on the interior to prevent the easy layups, and are going to force you to hit shots from outside.
This is what could be make-or-break for Michigan. If Michigan can find its shooting stroke from early in the season, rebounding might not even be a big issue. The Wolverines are going to have open shots from beyond the arc. Guys like Rubin Jones, Roddy Gayle, and LJ Cason are going to have to step up and drain them. And Danny Wolf, Tre Donaldson, Will Tschetter, and Nimari Burnett need to keep up their good shooting.
The last time Michigan played Texas A&M in the NCAA Tournament, it was raining threes for the Wolverines. If they kind shoot the ball anywhere near that level, it'll be a good night for the Wolverines.
Take care of the ball
This is a huge one. As I just mentioned, Texas A&M plays an aggressive style of defense. While this can lead to open shots if you make good passes, it can also lead to turnovers, which has been a problem for Michigan basketball all season long. Michigan had 14 against UCSD, which led to 15 points for the Tritons.
Texas A&M is not a great shooting team. They shoot 30.8% from 3 (325th nationally) and 48.7% from 2 (274th nationally). They make up for that by stealing possessions from the opponent. On average, the Aggies take five more shots per game than their opponents. For reference, Michigan's opponents take four more shots per game than the Wolverines.
While Michigan shoots the ball better than the Aggies (193rd nationally from 3, 12th nationally from 2) the Wolverines turn it over 14.1 times per game. Michigan needs to take care of the ball in order to beat the Aggies, The Wolverines cannot afford to give this Texas A&M team more possessions.
Likewise, taking care of the ball will lead to open shots. Whether it's back door cuts because a defender overplayed, or over-help leading to a shooter being wide open. Michigan has to make good, sound passes and avoid giving up points off of turnovers.
Michigan can definitely win this game. They have the better offense and a huge size advantage. In order to win, however, we'll need to see some combination of the three things mentioned. It'll be fascinating to see how this one plays out. Let's hope for a Sweet 16 berth.