Michigan basketball survived in the first round of the NCAA tournament on Thursday but in order to do the same thing against Texas A&M, that Wolverines will need to be sharper.
The Aggies are a tough matchup for U-M. There's no question about it. Texas A&M is ranked 17th via Kenpom. Michigan basketball is 25th. The Aggies have the ninth-ranked defense against Michigan, which is ranked 12th.
A&M was knocked out in the second round last season and returns some of same players including leading scorer Wade Taylor who averages over 15 points a game.
Taylor is a problem on both ends of the floor. He's athletic, can get to the paint, and also shoots the ball well. He's streaky too. The Aggies are active defensively and Taylor spearheads that, averaging 1.3 steals per game. The 6-foot point guard also averages four assists per game in addition to shooting 32.5 percent from deep and making 2.4 triples per game.
There are only two others on the roster who average more than one 3-point field goal per game. Zhuric Phelps, the second-leading scorer is one. C.J. Wilcher, who used to play for Nebraska, is the other.
The Aggies aren't a good shooting team, just like the last time Michigan played them in the NCAA tournament. They are 325th in shooting percentage (.41.9), 291st in 2-point percentage (48.7) and also 330th in 3-point percentage (30.8).
However, the Aggies are the best offenive rebounding team in the country (16 per game). They also rank 11th in free throw attempts and 17th in free throw makes per game. That, in addition to the turnovers, are enough to supplement the offense.
It's not a great matchup for Michigan basketball, which is a slight favorite. Looking ahead to Saturday's game (5:15 PM EST, CBS) here are three keys and a prediction.
Don't let A&M dominate on the boards
For a team with two 7-footers, the Wolverines have struggled on the defensive glass this season. Even UC San Diego rebounded 29 percent of its misses.
Texas A&M feasts on offensive rebounds. It gets 16 per game and that's going to be a huge key on Saturday. The Aggies are capable of getting hot. They did last season in the NCAA tournament against Nebraska. Taylor hit a bunch of 3-pointers and the Huskers didn't stand a chance.
Michigan needs to defend the way it has during the past four games. It doesn't need to chase the Aggies so hard off the 3-point line. U-M does need to rebound though.
If Texas A&M is rebounding more than 30 percent of its misses, it's hard to see the Wolverines overcoming that.
Keep the turnovers under control
Not all turnovers are created equal and there were a few that were really costly against UC San Diego. Michigan settled in during the second half and was better at protecting the ball.
Hopefully, that translates. The Wolverines ended up turning the ball over on 17 percent of its possessions. That would be ideal against A&M.
The two things (rebounds and turnovers) often go hand-in-hand, so if U-M turns the ball over on fewer than 20 percent of its possessions and allows A&M to rebound less than 30 percent of its misses, I'd feel good about the prospects of a win.
3-point shots have to fall
Michigan has to do a better job of finishing at the rim. Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf struggled against UC San Diego, especially in the second half.
Yet, the Aggies won't make it easy. They are one of the best teams in college basketball at defending the rim and allow just 40.5 percent on 2-point attempts.
Wolf and Goldin will test that but the Aggies tend to give up lots of 3-point attempts. They are 328th in opponent 3-point volume and 313th in opponent 3-point makes per game. The Wolverines will get 3-point shots, they just need to make them.
The good news is that during its four-game streak Michigan has made 33 3-pointers or more than eight per game.
Prediction: Texas A&M 81, Michigan 76
This feels like a high-scoring game that gets away from Michigan at the end. The Aggies will get too many extra possessions, but if Michigan limits the turnovers and offensive rebounds, it will win.