Skip to main content

The perfect recipe for an Alabama upset over Michigan comes down to one thing

One thing the Wolverines have to avoid against Alabama in the Sweet 16.
Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Nimari Burnett (4) shoots in the second half against the Saint Louis Billikens during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Nimari Burnett (4) shoots in the second half against the Saint Louis Billikens during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

When breaking down the matchup between Michigan basketball and Alabama, there has been a lot of focus, rightly so, on the offense of the Crimson Tide.

It's not like many the Wolverines have faced this season in terms of tempo. Alabama loves to play fast, even faster than Michigan, which is comfortable playing at a frenetic pace.

Bama, which is ranked 11th in the Kenpom, awfully high for a four seed, is ranked fourth in adjusted tempo this season. Michigan basketball is ranked 22nd.

It sounds good for Alabama, but the Tide will also have to worry about transition defense, which hasn't been a strength this season, against one of the best transition offenses in college basketball.

That's not a bad situation for the Wolverines. Alabama is going to make some shots. Hopefully, the Tide doesn't make 19 3-pointers like they did against Texas Tech. Michigan surrendered 10 in the first half against Howard, so that was concerning.

Alabama can definitely shoot the ball better than that. They make the second-most 3-point shots in college basketball. However, the 3-point shots I'm equally concerned with are Michigan's.

One Michigan basketball weakness can't show up against Alabama

In all three losses this season, Michigan has shot 32 percent or worse from 3-point range. They shot 26 percent against Duke, 29 percent against Purdue, and 32 percent against Wisconsin.

Michigan basketball ranks 39th nationally in 3-point shooting at 36.6 percent. Four different players are averaging 1.6 3-point makes per game: Yaxel Lendeborg, Trey McKenney, Elliot Cadeau, and Nimari Burnett, and each is shooting at least 36 percent. Will Tschetter and Morez Johnson are shooting above 36 percent as well.

Michigan allows 26.7 3-point attempts per game on defense. Alabama allows more than 24. With the size advantage inside, it feels like the Wolverines will get open looks as they did in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. U-M shot 48 percent and 46 percent in those two wins.

Michigan doesn't need to shoot that high tonight to beat Alabama, but it can't be in the 32-percent range either. Alabama being hot from three, while the Wolverines go cold is the exact recipe for a Crimson Tide upset in the Sweet 16.

It's the one thing the Wolverines have to avoid.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations