Michigan's game against Duke was exciting, but in big picture, and in terms of hanging a Big Ten championship banner, the game against Minnesota on Tuesday is more important.
A win over Duke would have meant a better chance at the No. 1 overall seed. But nobody hangs banners for getting the top seed. You have to win the damn tournament.
Even with the 68-63 loss to Duke, Michigan basketball has a better chance of doing that. The Wolverines will be better prepared for a team like Duke, which is the kind of team Michigan will have to beat if it wants to win a national championship, or even reach the Final Four.
With four games to go in the Big Ten race and three difficult matchups, this Minnesota game is a must-win. Sure, the Wolverines have a three-game lead, but they have to play at Illinois, at Iowa, and at home against Michigan State.
None of those wins will be easy. Minnesota can't be overlooked either. The Golden Gophers have played better than their record (13-14, 6-10). Niko Medved is a really solid coach, too. Minnesota just doesn't have a ton to work with, which is especially after six scholarship players went down to injury.
How Michigan basketball can bounce back against Minnesota
6-foot-7 wing Cade Tyson, a North Carolina transfer, has been by far the Gophers' best player, averaging 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Tyson is shooting 48.9 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from 3-point range.
Minnesota doesn't do many things well offensively. But 3-point shooting is one area where they are solid. They only attempt 15.6 2-pointers per game, which is 343rd in college basketball. Some of that is a higher volume of 3-point attempts. Some of it it is just playing at a slower pace.
Defensively, the Gophers are an ideal matchup for the Wolverines. They really struggle with rim protection and are allowing Big Ten teams to shoot 55.5 percent on 2-point attempts. The Wovlerines should dominate the 2-point battle.
The swing factor is 3-point shooting. If Michigan shoots 24 percent like it did against Duke, the Golden Gophers will probably hang around. If the Wolverines shoot around 35 percent, the game will be a blowout.
When Michigan basketball makes 3-pointers, it can't be defeated. It had a ton of open looks on Saturday that it normally converts. Trey McKenney, Elliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett and L.J. Cason shot a combined 2-of-14 from 3-point range.
Michigan will have a hard time winning games against anyone shooting like that. Minnesota isn't a team that forces turnovers or gets offensive rebounds, so having a stellar night from beyond the arc, coinciding with a cold-shooting night from the Wolverines, is about the only scenario where this ends up being a close game or an upset.
The perfect response to the Duke loss would be a blowout win that clinches the Big Ten title. It feels like the stage is set for that, but Michigan needs to sharp and can't take anything for granted.