Handicapping the Big Ten title race with Michigan in control of its destiny

What has happened since February 16th

1. Michigan 15-1: beat Purdue at Mackey Arena by 11.
2. Illinois 13-4: stomped USC by 36, then lost to UCLA in OT when Damian Dent won the game by going coast to coast in 4.9 seconds.
3. Michigan State 12-4: beat UCLA by 23 and Ohio St six.
4. Nebraska 12-4: lost to Iowa by five and beat Penn St by 23.
5. Purdue 8-3: beat Wisconsin and Washington.
   
   

Final games of the season

1. Michigan: 2/24 Minnesota, 2/27 at Illinois, 3/5 at Iowa, 3/8 Michigan St.
2. Illinois: 2/27 Michigan, 3/3 Oregon, 3/8 at Maryland.
3. Michigan State: 2/26 at Purdue, 3/1 at Indiana, 3/5 Rutgers, 3/8 at Michigan.
4. Nebraska: 2/25 Maryland, 2/28 at USC, 3/3 at UCLA, 3/8 Iowa.
5. Purdue: 2/26 Michigan St, 3/1 at Ohio St., 3/4 at Illinois, 3/7 Wisconsin
   

State of Affairs

Michigan is still #1 in the NET rankings, despite the loss to Duke. Don’t order the Big Ten regular season champion banner yet because they still go to Illinois and Iowa, and close out with Michigan St. Elliott Cadeau had an arm injury versus Duke and had a brace on his left arm in the second half. 

Illinois has a showdown with Michigan in Champaign, and a home win could make things interesting, given they close out with 4-12 Maryland and 3-13 Oregon. Andrej Stojakovic appears to be healthy, scoring a game-high 22 points off the bench against USC.

Michigan St has a tough schedule to close the season, with visits to Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan, and Rutgers before the Michigan game. Divine Ugochukwu is out for the season.

Nebraska has to do the LA double and have star guard Jamarques Lawrence hobbled with an ankle injury.

Purdue has an uphill row to hoe with Michigan St., then at Ohio St and Illinois, and Wisconsin. No significant injuries.

Prognostications

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index), as of Feb 23rd

1. Michigan = 24.8 (24.7) *
2. Illinois = 21.7 (21.4)
3. Purdue = 20.9 (20.9)
4. Michigan State = 18.4 (18.0)
5. Nebraska = 17.7 (17.7)
   
   
   * ESPN debuted their WIN CONF% with Michigan at >99.9%.
   
   

Bart Torvik’s share of the title and outright winner, as of Feb 23rd

1. Michigan = 99.9% and 96.3% (last week 90.6% and 68.1%)
2. Illinois = 3.3% and 0.1% (20.8% and 4.1%)
3. Purdue = 1.2% and 0.0% (12.1% and 1.7%)
4. Nebraska = 1.1% and 0.0% (9.3% and 1.0%
5. Michigan State = 0.4% and 0.0% (0.3% and 0.0%)
   
   

Fan Duel

Removed betting on the Big Ten championship. Don’t worry, if you have already placed your bet, they’ll pay off after the Michigan St game.