With 24 days left in the Big Ten men's basketball season, the regular-season title contenders had a major shift with Illinois’s loss to Michigan State. Michigan basketball has 12 wins, Illinois 11, and Nebraska and MSU 10. Purdue has a must-win game versus Nebraska on Feb. 10th.
Note that the rankings below is “NET” or the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the ranking system used to help with March Madness selection and seeding. It evaluates teams based on game results, strength of schedule, game location, and per-possession efficiency (net offensive/defensive). It’s included for comparison purposes.
What happened since February 2nd
- #1 Michigan 12-1: Last week was #3; romped to wins over Penn State and Ohio State.
- #4 Illinois 10-1: Last week was #6; defeated Northwestern by 40 (!) but lost on the road to Michigan State.
- #10 Purdue 8-3: Last week was #8; defeated Oregon by four.
- #11 Nebraska 9-2: Last week was #10; defeated Rutgers by 12.
- #12 Michigan State 9-2: Last week was #11; lost to Minnesota and defeated Illinois.
Next two games
- Michigan: Feb 11th at Northwestern (#79) and Feb 14th has UCLA (#38) at home.
- Illinois: Feb 10th has Wisconsin (#43) and Feb 15th has Michigan State (#12) both at home.
- Purdue: Feb 10th at Nebraska (#11) and Feb 14th at Iowa (#20).
- Nebraska: Feb 10 has Purdue (#10) and Feb 14th has Northwestern (#79) both at home.
- Michigan State: Feb 13th at Wisconsin (#43) and Feb 17th has UCLA (38) at home.
State of Affairs
Michigan basketball is on an eight-game win streak and is either #1 or #2 in the rankings, as well as top nationally in defense and near the top in offense. There aren’t any injuries to rotational players, with grad student Yaxel Lendeborg showing more explosion.
Illinois was knocked back by the road loss to a reeling MSU. They are still without senior Kylan Boswell. However, freshman Keaton Wagler has been impressive, especially 46 points on the road against Purdue, for which he was the Big Ten player of the week, ameliorating Boswell’s absence.
Purdue barely beat Oregon, struggling for 37 minutes against them. However, senior Fletcher Loyer broke out of his slump and has 10 3s in his last two games.
Nebraska got back to winning on the road in New Jersey. They’ll need another strong defensive performance against a determined Purdue. Pundits refer to senior Sam Hoiberg as both the glue and the oil. The latter because he holds the team together and the former is because he keeps the machine rolling. Hoiberg is Danish for things that are viscous and oleaginous.
Michigan State is currently in the news for their on-court shenanigans referred to as “Spartan Basketball.” Coach Tom Izzo has made it clear he remains upset about Michigan coach Dusty May's public criticism of sophomore Jeremy Fears, Jr. "Things got blown up," Izzo said, adding that Fears was “remorseful.” Ah yes, remorseful Jeremy Fears.
Prognostications
Pretty soon, the crystal balls are going to become clearer, but not for another week.
- ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index): As of Feb 9th, Michigan is still in first with 24.1, Illinois is 21.1, Boilermakers is 20.3, Michigan State with 18.6, and Nebraska with 17.7.
- Bart Torvik: Torvik has two scores of interest, share of the title and outright winner. As of Feb 9th, Michigan has jumped to 72.7% and 47.1% and Illinois has dropped to 40.3% and 17.6%. Nebraska remains steady at 19.6% and 5.1%, while Purdue leapfrogged Michigan State and has 2.3% and 0.3%. Michigan State is at 1.7% and 0.2%.
- Fan Duel: Michigan improved to -160, while Illinois dropped to +150, with Nebraska at +1300, Purdue at +3500, and Michigan State taking a big hit dropping to +8000.