Michigan basketball will play the Purdue Boilermakers for a third time this season on Friday. The rubber match will come in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament.
The Boilermakers are the sixth seed of the Big Ten tournament, but they are easily capable of bringing home the title. However, Purdue struggled against USC and got more than a few friendly whistles in the 76-71 win over USC.
Braden Smith is the Big Ten Player of the Year. Trey Kaufman-Renn was also a First-Team All-Big Ten selection. Vlad Goldin made the first team, too. Danny Wolf was Second-Team All-Big Ten. However, the Wolverines have been in a slump.
They played better in the second half against Michigan State and here are three keys, plus a prediction for the Big Ten semifinals against Purdue.
Tre Donaldson needs to show up
In the first game, a blowout in favor of Purdue, Tre Donaldson struggled. He scored 11 points but had six turnovers, including a few early that set the tone in the wrong way. Michigan basketball had 22 turnovers and was never competitive inside Mackey Arena.
Donaldson scored 12 points, made two triples, and most importantly, had just one turnover in the win for Michigan in Ann Arbor. There was a point where it felt like Michigan was going to lose control of the game in the second contest against Purdue before Donaldson made some shots to get Michigan back in the game.
Donaldson is only scoring 6.6 points per game during the last six games. He's also got 12 turnovers in that time. He just hasn't been the same player. If the Wolverines are going to make a run in the Big Ten tournament, or in the NCAA tournament, Donaldson has to find his form.
If he plays more like the first game against Purdue, Michigan won't have a shot.
Low turnovers, limit offensive boards
Michigan has been really poor this season when it comes to turning the ball over. U-M has also struggled on the defensive glass and things are getting worse.
Michigan basketball leads the Big Ten in turnovers per game (13.1) and offensive rebounds allowed (9.9 in conference games). In the first win against Purdue, Michigan only turned the ball over on 13 percent of its possessions. It also rebounded approximately the same percentage of misses as Purdue, which was a huge win.
If Michigan is going to win this game, it has to keep the turnovers reasonable and they need to keep pace with Purdue on the offensive glass. If not, it will be long night.
Some shots need to fall
Despite the poor shooting lately, Dusty May expressed confidence in his team's ability to shoot the ball. The Wolverines did shoot the ball well earlier in the season, but this is about more than 3-point shooting.
Danny Wolf has started to struggle finishing around the basket. Defenses have forced him to make more one-on-one plays, and he's been inconsistent. 3-point shooting has been an issue, but Wolf hasn't shot the ball as well on 2-point attempts either.
Michigan needs its big three to step up against Purdue, but they also need guys like Nimari Burnett, Will Tschetter, Rubin Jones, and Roddy Gayle to make some shots. Purdue is one of the best offensive teams in the conference. The Wolverines were that earlier in the season and they will need to get back to it if they want to play in March much longer.
Prediction: Purdue 77, Michigan 73
Michigan basketball will be more competitive in this game. The Wolverines will look more like they did earlier this season, but offensive rebounds, turnovers, and Braden Smith will be the difference.
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