After two somewhat shaky performances that led to Michigan basketball falling in the AP Poll from sixth to seventh, the Wolverines return to their home court tonight against Middle Tennessee State.
The Blue Raiders are 3-0 this season, albeit against a soft schedule that only includes one D-1 team so far this season. However, they won 22 games last season, but graduated a huge part of that roster.
Still, out of Conference-USA, Middle Tennessee State is ranked No. 149 in the Kenpom rankings. It should provide more of a challenge than a team ranked in the low 200s. The Blue Raiders do have some size, too, and boast one of the best defensive profiles, at least statisically, but again, competition matters.
Kamari Lands is scoring 17.7 points per game and shooting 52 percent from the field. The 6-foot-8 forward is shooting 40 percent from 3-point range, with an average of two 3-point field goals per game. That will be an interesting defensive matchup, although Yaxel Lendeborg makes perfect sense.
Chris Loofe is the 6-foot-11 big man who will have to contend with Aday Mara and Morez Johnson. He leads the C-USA in blocked shots at 2.3 per game, and is scoring 10 points and grabbing seven rebounds. He's shooting 59 percent from the field. Sean Smith and Jahvin Carter, who comes off the bench, are transfer guards. Carter transferred from Penn State. They score a combined 26.7 points per game and average seven assists compared to just two turnovers.
This is also a team that shoots the ball well from beyond the arc, with an average of 12.7 3-pointers per game (12th) and a percentage of 35.5 (4th).
Looking ahead to Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee State, here are three keys and a prediction.
Don't let the Blue Raiders get hot
Michigan is a heavy favorite, yet the Wolverines didn't come close to covering the spread in each of their last two games.
One reason for that has been poor 3-point shooting. Another has been that opponents are shooting lights out from beyond the arc. Michigan is allowing 9.8 3-point field goals per game (313th), 28 attempts (320th) and is giving up makes a .333 percent clip (217th).
That's not great. In that regard, Middle Tennesee State will be a test. The Blue Raiders hit a dozen triples per game and could make things interesting if they get hot from deep.
Make some shots
Michigan should get plenty of good looks. Middle Tennessee State is ranked among the top 100 teams in 2-point defense (45.8% allowed, 88th). They also average 9.3 blocks per game.
Yet, those numbers are inflated by playing two non-D-1 opponents. Michigan should dominate inside. That should open the door for some good looks.
After going 9-for-41 from beyond the arc the past two games (21 percent), the Wolverines need to see some shots fall. It doesn't need to be like Oakland, but it would be nice to see the team build some confidence heading into next week.
Win the turnover battle
Take this with a grain of salt, but Middle Tennessee State is plus nine in average turnover ratio this season. They are averaging nine giveaways compared to 18.3 takeaways.
Middle Tennessee State ranks 15th in college basketball in turnovers forced, while Michigan basketball ranks 330th in turnovers given away.
Sort of like the 3-point shooting, it could be a recipe for disaster. It shouldn't be, but it is another reason that this buy game feels like a more worthwhile test. Middle Tennessee State can challenge Michigan in some areas where it needs to be challenged.
It will be fun to see how they respond.
Michigan (-27.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State prediction
The Wolverines didn't cover the spread in their last two games. It feels like they will have a good chance tonight, but with the turnovers and 3-point defense, Michigan wins but doesn't cover for the third straight game.
Michigan 94, Middle Tennessee State 75