After being voted as the No. 1 team in the Coaches Poll on Monday for the first time in 12 years, the Michigan basketball team will take on another high-quality opponent in Villanova on Tuesday night.
The Wildcats are led by first-year head coach Kevin Willard, with whom Michigan fans may be familiar, as he previously served as the head coach at Maryland. Villanova is 7-1 on the season, having won seven straight games following a season-opening loss to BYU.
Nova is ranked 35th in the Kenpom rankings with the No. 27 adjusted offense and the No. 55 adjusted defense. Michigan basketball ranks 1st on defense and 11th on offense.
As you'd expect, Villanova shoots the ball very well. The Wildcats are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball, making 10.9 3-pointers per game (27th) and shooting 38 percent (34th).
Villanova isn't a big team. They have one player on the roster who is 6-foot-10 (Duke Brennan), who leads the Big East in rebounds with 12.9 per game. Bryce Lindsay leads the Big East in 3-point percentage (49.1) and is making 3.5 3-pointers per game. Acaden Lewis, who doesn't shoot well from deep, is leading the Big East in assists (5.8 per game).
The Wildcats also have four players, Lindsay included, who are averaging at least 1.8 3-point field goals per game. Three players on Villanova's roster average 1.8 makes and shoot above 40 percent.
Michigan's top-ranked defense will be challenged. The Wolverines are a 15.5-point favorite. Tip-off time is set for 6:30 PM EST on Fox Sports 1. Here are three keys and a prediction.
Be even at the 3-point line
One way Villanova could win this game, or make it close, is by having a drastic advantage in terms of 3-pointers. Michigan has struggled at times this season, having three games with fewer than five 3-pointers made in a row.
Over the past four games, they have made at least 10 in each contest. The Wolverines are making 10.5 per game and shooting 37.5 percent. Those are very similar numbers to Villanova. Yet, there is one big difference between the two teams: 3-point defense.
The Wildcats have the worst 3-point defense in college basketball, literally. They ranked 364th, allowing teams to shoot 42.5 percent from deep. They only allow 19 attempts per game. Villanova has a strong 2-point defense, so their defense is good at forcing mid-range shots.
We'll see how effective that is against Michigan. If the Wolverines keep the 3-point scoring close, though, it's hard to see Villanova winning this one. Michigan allows 26.6 3-point attempts per game but ranks 80th in 3-point defense, allowing teams to shoot just 30 percent from beyond the arc.
That should be a big difference in the game.
Own the paint
This is what Michigan does nearly every game. It dominates near the rim, making it difficult for teams to attempt shots at the rim, then forces a ton of contested 2-pointers in the mid-range. Good defensive basketball is about forcing teams to take the shots you want them to take, instead of taking the shots they want to take.
For as good as Villanova's defense looks on paper, it's different when you have to guard Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, and Yaxel Lendeborg. Johnson scored 22 points in 24 minutes on Saturday. He was 9-of-11 from the floor and made both of his 3-pointers.
Yaxel Lendeborg, who has the best 2-point field-goal percentage in the country (79.1), is also shooting 39 percent from three. Johnson is shooting 50 percent from deep. Pairing those guys and Will Tschetter with Mara almost isn't fair.
Like the great Michigan football teams of recent years were great in trenches, Michigan owns the paint and that should be the story once again on Tuesday night.
Limit extra possessions
Villanova forces 13 turnovers per game. If there is one weakness of Michigan offensively, it's turnovers. The Wolverines ranked 264th with 13.6 per game.
The Wildcats average just nine giveaways. They are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking third in college hoops with 15.6 per game.
Yet, it just so happens that Michigan is the best defensive rebounding team in the country (34.1 per game), so that will be another game within the game to watch. If Villanova doesn't have an edge on turnovers or offensive rebounds, it's hard to see it pulling off an upset.
Michigan vs. Villanova Prediction
The Wolverines are a great defensive team. They defend the 3-point line well. They are also exceptional on the offensive glass. Combine that with the size advantage for U-M, and the way Michigan basketball has shot the ball, especially at home, and this feels like another easy win, albeit more competitive than the past few games. It will be a contest in the second half.
Michigan 92, Villanova 72.