Back on January 30th, Michigan basketball went into the Breslin Center and walked out with a 12-point win.
It was a huge moment for Dusty May. It was a huge moment for Michigan, which hadn't won in East Lansing in eight years.
On Sunday, Senior Day, the Wolverines are seeking a season sweep of the Spartans for the first time since 2014. As far as the Big Ten race, Michigan State has more at stake than U-M.
The Spartans will clinch the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament with a win. Nebraska gets it with a win and an MSU loss. The Wolverines have clinched the Big Ten title, the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament, and probably a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
This is a big game because it's Michigan State. Here are three things that will decide the outcome.
3-point shooting
This was the difference in the game. Michigan made eight 3-pointers, shooting 38 percent. The Spartans made four and shot 17 percent. The two teams stalemated the 2-point battle. Michigan State had a slight offensive rebounding edge, thanks to some in the last two minutes, but the 3-ball is what separated the two teams.
For Michigan to win, the Wolverines have to avoid one of those 20-percent shooting days from 3-point range. That cost Michigan State last time, and if it happens to either team on Sunday, it will be costly.
2-point offense has to improve
Michigan shot 47 percent on 2-point attempts in the win. Michigan State shot 48 percent. The Spartans and Wolverines have the top two 2-point defenses in the Big Ten, and two of the best in college basketball.
It didn't work out this way the first time, but it's hard to see Michigan shooting below 50 percent on 2-pointers and winning the game. Aday Mara was 4-of-12 from the field in the first game. That can't happen again.
The team that wins this battle will win the game (It was a draw last time).
Offensive rebounds
Michigan State is always a good offensive rebounding team. They got 13 in the first game. MSU rebounded about 35 percent of its misses. It struggled to convert those into second-chance points, but if the Spartans get 13 offensive boards again, that will spell trouble.
Iowa rebounded 25 percent of its misses on Thursday. At times, the Wolverines have struggled in that area. It needs to be cleaned up on Sunday, because the Spartans path to victory, outside of getting hot from deep, is winning the 2-point battle, and dominating the glass.
Michigan was the tougher team last time. We'll see if they can be that again on Sunday (4:30 PM, CBS).