Michigan basketball fans knew there were some marquee games on the schedule this season, but who knew that one of the most-anticipated games would come against Nebraska?
The Huskers are 20-0. That's the best start in the history of their program. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, and has only had five seasons with at least 10 conference wins since 1975.
Fred Hoiberg's team has won 24 in a row, dating back to last season's College Basketball Crown. Rienk Mast, a 6-foot-10 center/forward, leads the way for the Huskers, along with Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort, who is scoring 19.7 points per game and shooting 50/40/90 in Big Ten play (54/47/90).
You also have Sam Hoiberg, who has turned into one of the best point guards in the Big Ten. His defense is elite, and he sparks a Nebraska team that is ranked 12th in adjusted defense, according to Kenpom. Nebraska is 12th overall, Michigan is second, just getting passed by Arizona.
This Nebraska squad plays a lot like an old John Beilein team. The Huskers are fifth in college basketball in fewest turnovers and have the ninth-fewest fouls. They also rank 19th nationally with 10.8 3-point field goals per game, but also shoot 60.2 percent on 2-pointers (14th nationally).
Braden Frager, one of the best sixth men in the Big Ten, is a game-time decision. He missed the game on Saturday against Minnesota. The Wolverines are a 10.5-point favorite. Tip-off time 7 PM EST on Peacock, and here are three bold predictions for Michigan vs. Nebraska.
Lots of 3-pointers
Nebraska is 16th in 3-point attempts this season. The Huskers also rank 329th nationally in 3-point attempts allowed. In Nebraska games this season, there is an average of 60 3-pointers attempted.
On Tuesday, two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country will go at it, although the Wolverines have been struggling from beyond the arc lately.
Nebraska is the best shooting team Michigan has faced this season. Frager being out could help, but expect the Huskers to hit at least 10 triples in this game. The volume isn't as important as the percentage, though. The Wolverines are 42nd nationally in 3-point defense (30.2 percent).
If Michigan keeps that number close to 30 percent, that will be a win. Nebraska needs to defend Michigan, too, and on Saturday, they allowed nine first-half 3-pointers to Minnesota. The Huskers didn't allow any in the second half, but tonight, both teams hit at least 10.
2-point success tilts to Michigan
The 3-point battle is something to watch, but so is the battle at the rim. Michigan has been an elite 2-point offense. The Wolverines are second in the country on offense at 64.3 percent, and second in the country on defense, allowing just 41.1 percent.
Nebraska shoots 60.7 percent on 2s (14th), while allowing 47.6 percent (65th). The Huskers have some size. Berke Buyuktuncel is one of the best defenders in the Big Ten no one talks about.
Aday Mara will have to deal with him on both ends (Berke can shoot 3s, although just 22 percent this season). Morez Johnson will likely get the assignment on Rienk Mast, who is maybe the best playmaking big in the Big Ten. He's also a deadly 3-point shooter, and a talented scorer around the basket.
That being said, Nebraska hasn't played a team with Michigan's length. It's hard to prepare for, and the interior defense, as well as the finishing ability of Yaxel Lendeborg, Mara, Johnson, and others will give Michigan a double-digit edge when it comes to 2-point percentage.
The secret of the Wisconsin loss, beyond all the 3-pointers, was that the Badgers matched Michigan's 2-point shooting percentage, which was as much about good defense as good offense.
The Wolverines can't let that happen on Tuesday, or it will spell trouble.
Yaxel has a Player of the Year performance
Lendeborg is one of the top contenders for Big Ten Player of the Year. He's struggled a little bit offensively, especially with the jump shot. He's still shooting 51 percent overall and 67.7 percent on 2-pointers, but the 3-point percentage has dipped to 32.5. In his last five games, Yaxel has connected on just 5-of-20 attempts from beyond the arc.
Yet, after shooting under .500 in a string of games, even on 2s, Yaxel made 66.7 percent against Indiana and 75 percent against Ohio State. Against the Buckeyes, he had 18 points, nine rebounds (6 offensive), four assists and three steals.
In the win over Indiana, Lendeborg scored 15 points, grabbed seven rebounds, dished out four assists, had three steals, and two blocks. His offense, after some injuries, is coming back. The defense has never dropped off, and tonight, it feels like Yaxel will be the best player on both ends of the floor.
If that happens, Michigan will win the game.
Prediction: Michigan 89, Nebraska 77