Michigan basketball has two top-10 matchups on the schedule this week, which isn't something anyone expected at the start of the season.
Michigan-Michigan State was always going to be a showdown with Big Ten championship implications. However, nobody expected the Nebraska Cornhuskers to be 20-0. The 18-1 Wolverines are tied for second in the Big Ten with an 8-1 record. Nebraska is 20-0. It is also 9-0 in the Big Ten.
Nebraska is the only team in the Big Ten that has defeated Illinois or Michigan State. The Huskers have also been good on the road, winning games at Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Indiana.
This is a veteran team, too. Nebraska starts three seniors. The others are upperclassmen who have started or played substantial minutes since their freshman seasons.
Fred Hoiberg's team tends to live and die with the 3-point shot. This year, the Huskers are also an elite defensive team with the No. 11 adjusted defense via Kenpom.
3-point shooting of Nebraska is the X-factor
They have still been deadly from 3-point range. Nebraska is averaging 11.8 3-pointers per game in Big Ten conference games. They are shooting 38.1 percent. One reason those numbers are so high are the 18.2 assists per game (2nd in the Big Ten during conference play).
Nebraska shares the ball as well as any team in the country. They also have shooters all over the floor, although key sixth man Braden Frager is a game-time decision.
Berke Buyuktuncel, who plays the five for Nebraska, due to his rim-protection and rebounding skills. Buyuktuncel is a career 27.1 career 3-point range. He's shooting 22.9 percent this season, but Michigan needs to have a better plan than leaaving him open and hoping he misses.
That didn't work against Wisconsin. It could be risky against Nebraska. Rienk Mast could play some at the five, too, although, Dusty May could counter with Morez Johnson at the five.
At the end of the day, Michigan needs to keep Nebraska's 3-point shooting in check. If the Huskers exceed their Big Ten average of 11.8, and Michigan struggles, sort of like it did against Ohio State from beyond the arc, the Huskers are easily good enough to win the game.
Michigan basketball might be able to overcome a hot shooting day from the Huskers if the Wolverines get hot, too. They are capable. The Wolverines are 6th in the Big Ten in 3-point makes per game (8.6) and is 8th in 3-point percentage (33.9).
Dusty May's team is 11th in defensive 3-point percentage. So, 3-point shooting feels like the X-factor, and if Michigan can keep Nebraska from going bonkers, it should win the game.