Does Michigan Football have a playoff path as a one-loss team?

Michigan football is ranked third in the College Football Playoff rankings again. The question is can the Wolverines make it without beating Ohio State? 

The College Football Playoff selection committee released their rankings again on Tuesday and Michigan football is still in the No. 3 spot.

It’s not a surprise and right now, the top five is pretty easy. Just about everyone has the four remaining undefeated teams — Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, and Michigan — ranked in the top four followed by Tennessee.

That’s where it gets interesting. LSU leapfrogged USC to the No. 6 spot. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Tigers will make it as a two-loss team if they win out.

At any rate, the bigger question we keep asking as Michigan football fans, is can the Wolverines make it with a loss to Ohio State?

Breaking down Michigan football’s chances at 11-1

Look, this Michigan football team is really, really good. It’s one of the best I’ve seen. I had similar thoughts about the 2016 team too, although I like the quarterback better now and that team didn’t have the offensive line or Heisman Trophy-caliber running back.

Still, that was a damn good team. We all know what happened in the game, but what if Michigan loses another close one?

I believe in my heart of hearts that this team can win in Columbus. It can. But will it?

I’d still lean toward the Buckeyes like I did at the beginning of the season (except if snow or wind is in the forecast). If the Wolverines beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten title game, they won’t have to worry about their final ranking. They will be No. 1 or No. 2.

Yet, a close loss might not drop them far like Tennessee. The Wolverines’ non-conference schedule also hurts them with the committee, although it should be pointed out that UConn is a six-win team now.

Iowa and Maryland are bowling, and Michigan State also looks like it will be going to a bowl game, plus Penn State is basically a top-10 team (one U-M dominated by 24). Illinois is a 7-win team. That’s six wins against teams with at least six wins.

The problem is that if you look at Tennessee, it has a much better resume. It has beaten a top-10 team at home in Alabama, which the committee rates as better than Penn State, plus it has a dominant win on the road over No. 6 LSU. Don’t forget about that.

Frankly, if it comes down to Ohio State and Tennessee, the Vols have the better resume. The eye test or whatever barometer the committee uses could be a difference maker, but Tennessee has been just as dominant as Michigan or Ohio State.

To be fair, the Wolverines haven’t allowed a point in the fourth quarter since the Iowa game (five weeks) and over the last five games have only allowed three second-half points, but the committee still is dinging them for the strength of schedule, even though that happened against Big Ten teams.

I also don’t think Michigan is a guarantee to make it over a 12-1 TCU team. The Horned Frogs would probably need to lose twice or a team like Kansas State would need to win the Big 12.

USC would also have to lose. Call me crazy, I just don’t see the committee putting in a 12-1 conference champion over Michigan. I also don’t see Michigan making it over Tennessee.

So unless there is a ton of chaos, Michigan needs to beat Ohio State or make plans for the Rose Bowl which in my mind, is the best consolation prize.

The Wolverines haven’t won that game since 1997 and I’d sure love to see that drought end. Of course, I’d rather the national title drought end, so just beat Ohio State.