Michigan Football: The Bigger Picture And The Air Force Game
By Peter Arango
As Michigan football preps for a game against Air Force, the ramifications of wins and losses are going to start becoming more evident.
The AP and Coaches’ Polls are interesting predictive guesses and generally promote bragging rights in the first half of the season. The game changes in the second half, when ranking has much to say about which teams end up competing for a national championship.
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And that’s where things get tricky for the fan because strength of schedule is determined by the final rankings of the teams Michigan has played.
If Cincinnati, for example, continues to improve and wins convincingly over Navy and takes the American Athletic Conference title, and in the same span, Navy beats the tar out of Notre Dame, the Cincinnati victory counts formore than an exhibition game.
It isn’t hard to root for Cincinnati or Navy during the rest of the season, but then, there are the conference games.
Michigan has to get by Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State and win the conference championship, but the 13 people selecting the teams that fight it out for the national title can only name what they consider to be the top four, based on record and strength of schedule. In the best of all possible worlds, Michigan goes undefeated, and each victory confirms the worthiness of the Wolverines as one of the final four.
Ohio State has already lost one to Oklahoma, a team that should go on to rack up a Big 12 title; that loss is similar to Florida State’s loss to Alabama and should not weaken the importance of a Michigan victory over the Buckeyes at season’s end. The Penn State and Wisconsin games will certainly count, and this may be the moment to give a shout-out to the Big Ten with FOUR teams in the AP’s top ten.
No win in the conference will come easily, but “the body of work” put together by Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Rutgers and Minnesota will determine Michigan’s strength of schedule.
Rutgers, last year’s conference doormat, has improved notably and played well against Washington—well enough to trail only by three at the half, well enough to hold Washington’s running game to 1.6 yards per carry in the first half. Indiana looked good against Ohio State, picking up 420 yards in the air against the Buckeyes, then went on to knock off Virginia 34-17 on the road. Minnesota pummelled Oregon State, but Oregon State had already taken a beating at Colorado State and will likely take a full season of thumpings at the hands of the Pac-12.
Michigan State is interesting. After beating Bowling Green and a good Western Michigan team, the Spartans play Notre Dame, Iowa, Northwestern and Maryland, four teams Michigan won’t see. They will have played Navy and Iowa by the time they meet the Wolverines, bringing whatever lustre those games might provide.
This takes us to Saturday’s game against the Air Force Academy. The Falcons are a full member of the Mountain West Conference with non-conference games against VMI, Michigan, Navy and Army. Should they handle the remaining three teams outside the conference and do well in conference play, a Michigan victory on Saturday should carry some weight.
A loss against Air Force?
Bad news, no matter how it is explained or spun. A loss is a loss, but a loss to an unranked out-of-conference team is hard to sell to the 13 great minds picking the final four.
Paul Myerberg in USA Sports put it this way in describing the decision to put Ohio State in the final four over Penn State, the team that had beaten Ohio State head-to-head and won the conference championship.
“The reality of the matter is that Penn State’s title hopes suffered a fatal blow on Sept. 10, when rival Pittsburgh outlasted the Nittany Lions in a 42-39 win. Teams can afford to lose once in conference play, but losing a non-conference matchup is another story; in the three-year history of the Playoff, just one team, Ohio State in 2014, has lost a non-conference game and reached a national semifinal.”
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Fair warning, Michigan. Go Blue!