Michigan Football: Only A Matter Of Time Until Defense Can’t Play Savior
Now that Michigan football’s offense officially has some big question marks, it’s only a matter of time until the Wolverines lose because of that unit.
There’s that old saying: “Defense wins championships.” Why do we believe that? Two reasons: because legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant said it, and because it’s true—but it’s only part of the story.
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With Michigan playing on our TVs every week, we have a case study right in front of us. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in college football, age and inexperience be damned. That is objectively true. The defense has scored three touchdowns in two games, which is one more than it’s allowed. (Scoring defense is a bit misleading because of the two pick-sixes against Florida.)
Will defense win that team a championship? Not if the offense continues to look the way it has.
There are two big problems facing the offense right now. One is perpetual; the other is an issue we’ve noticed before, only it’s becoming inflamed now.
First, there’s the inability for the offense to put a team away. Through two games now, it’s been the defense that’s had to do that job. Against Florida, that involved getting continuous stops and then scoring on a fumble in the end zone near the end of the game. Michigan’s offense didn’t score after the 9-minute mark in the third quarter.
The game against Cincinnati had a very similar feel, only it was worse because it was Cincinnati, a team that struggled to beat Austin Peay the previous week. The Wolverines’ offense, despite numerous opportunities, couldn’t muster up one touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. The Bearcats, though with little hope on offense, were at worst down by two possessions through most of the second half. It was another defensive score, a Lavert Hill pick-six, that made the score more lopsided.
Without Michigan’s defense, the Wolverines win 22-14, and that’s including Cincinnati’s safety.
The second big issue right now is ball security. Two lost fumbles (one of which came on special teams) puts the Wolverines’ season total at four. Teams have scored 21 points off those turnovers.
What happens when Michigan plays offenses that are able to score a little more without that assistance? Cincinnati had one legitimate scoring drive. What if it had been two or three? It’s a different ball game, maybe with a different outcome.
Aside from the turnovers, the offense seems to just be struggling in general, outside of the running game.
Wilton Speight has connected on a few deep balls early in the season, including a 43-yard touchdown to Kekoa Crawford to open the game against Cincinnati. But you never have to wait long before you’re reminded that accuracy is a serious issue.
Speight, who completed 61 percent of his passes in 2016, is now only completing 51 percent. Chalk some of that up to having brand new receivers, but it’s also obvious just looking at the balls he throws that something else is different—and worse.
Speight blamed his footwork. Jim Harbaugh said he’s still the starter. Michigan hasn’t had to rely on its offense late in games yet, but given its overall inability to score in the fourth quarter, as well as Speight’s issue with overthrowing the ball, it could be disastrous if it comes to that.
That’s why I’m confident in saying the Wolverines will lose at least one game this season because of the offensive woes on display through two games. You can blame it on the youth, and you might be partially right, but it’s a fact that we’ve seen this same problem the last two years, and those teams had as much experience as you could ask for.
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The nature of the injury makes me believe this will come back to bite Michigan in a big game. We’ve already seen it too many times: Michigan State 2015, Iowa 2016, Ohio State 2016. It’s only a matter of time before it happens in 2017.