Michigan Football Opponent Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats

After traveling to Texas to play Florida, Michigan football will travel back home for the first time in the 2017 season to play the Cincinnati Bearcats.

The last time Michigan football played a team led by head coach Luke Fickell, he was filling in on an interim basis at Ohio State in 2011. The Wolverines won that game, 40-34, in Brady Hoke’s first year. It was the last time Michigan beat Ohio State.

The next time Fickell takes a team to Ann Arbor, he’ll do it as the first-year head coach of the Cincinnati Bearcats, a team that dropped seven of its final eight games last year and finished 4-8.

This is the second part of our opponent preview series, which began with a look at the Florida Gators.

The Rundown

When: Saturday, Sept. 9

Where: Ann Arbor, Michigan

Time: Noon EST

Last Meeting: First meeting

Cincinnati’s 2016 Record: 4-8

Bovada Over/Under Win Total: 5 1/2

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Last Season

Cincinnati’s 2016 season was a tale of two halves. The first was positive, the second disastrous. In the second game of the season, for example, the Bearcats beat Purdue in West Lafayette, marking the first road win against a Big Ten team in 59 years. The next week, Cincinnati had Houston on the ropes in the fourth quarter but couldn’t complete the job.

After beating Miami (Ohio) to improve to 3-1, the Bearcats’ lone remaining win was against East Carolina. Cincinnati lost some very lopsided games, including 34-13 against Temple and 34-7 against Memphis.

After blowing a 10-point half time lead against Tulsa in the final game of the season, Tommy Tubberville resigned with a final record of 29-22 in four seasons.

Biggest Storyline

Cincinnati’s 2016 offense was one of the worst in the country. A new offensive coordinator shifted the Bearcats to a more pro-style attack, and it rarely worked. Cincinnati was held to 10 points or fewer in seven games and only scored 19.3 points per game, good for No. 123 in FBS.

With only five returning starters this season, the Bearcats have to figure out a way to replace a bulk of last season’s offense, while also improving on it greatly.

Fickell has promised an up-tempo spread offense this season with new offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, which, considering Fickell’s background at Ohio State, isn’t a surprise. Then again, Denbrock’s Notre Dame offenses weren’t known for their tempo. One of the greatest testaments to how truly slow and ineffective last season’s offense was: Cincinnati had four runs of 20-plus yards the entire season.

The Offense

Cincinnati had three starting quarterbacks last season, and none of them were particularly effective. Two of them, junior Hayden Moore and sophomore Ross Trail, return to an offense that’s changing for the third straight season. You have to go back to 2015 to find positive notes on Moore, who had turnover problems last year. He’ll likely be battling against Trail through the rest of the offseason. Then again, Ohio Sate transfer Torrance Gibson, a four-star dual-threat in the 2015 class, could use his athleticism to gain an edge in a fast-pace offense.

Last season, the Bearcats’ top three running backs only managed 1,238 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. The majority of the workload, at least early, will fall on senior Mike Boone, last year’s No. 2 back. He showed good things early in his career, but it hasn’t been anything special lately. One player to keep an eye on will be redshirt freshman Gerrid Doaks, a powerful 6-foot, 200-pound back, who had a good showing in the spring game.

The receiving corps might be the most promising position unit on this offense. Three of the top four producers from last season are back, including senior Devin Gray and junior Kahlil Lewis, who combined for 1,465 yards in 2016. Added to the mix this season will be LSU transfer Avery Johnson Sr., who could very well find a starting role immediately.

At first glance, the offensive line situation looks scary. Three main starters from 2016 are gone, including four-year starting center Keyshawn Bond. The other two filled both guard spots. However, four returning linemen did get at least two starts last season, and Ohio State transfer Grant Schmidt will add good depth at right tackle.

The Defense

Cincinnati is looking at one significant loss on the defensive line, and then a few that are probably going to add up at some point. Tackle Alex Pace, who registered 4 1/2 tackles for loss in 2016, is the only missing starter, while Kevin Mouhon (8 1/2 tackles for loss) is making a switch to linebacker. The Bearcats are also losing three primary backups. So while the line probably won’t start anyone younger than a junior, depth may be an issue.

For losing three starters, Cincinnati could be in much worse shape at linebacker. Mouhon moving to linebacker effectively secures a starter, and Bryce Jenkinson, who started nine games as a true freshman in 2015, will be back from injury. He will, at the very least, provide good depth at middle linebacker. Fickell and defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman also inherit a few solid redshirt freshmen at the position.

The good news is that almost everyone in the secondary is back from last season, minus safety Zach Edwards (93 tackles in 2016). The bad news is last year’s defense operated on a bend-don’t-break principle that really let opponents off the hook. If all goes well, the Bearcats should be able to use a ton of experience to get a little more aggressive in the secondary and avoid handing out so many free gifts to offenses. One player to watch out for: Alex Thomas, who started the last 10 games in 2016 at cornerback and led the defense with four interceptions.

Outlook

It would be very difficult for Cincinnati to not improve this season, especially on offense. A more up-tempo approach should do wonders compared to last year, even if the Bearcats don’t necessarily have all the right skill sets in place yet.

The offensive line should hold up for the most part, and there will be a useful set of receivers out there. If Boone can run the ball like his 2015 self and a quarterback can cut back on interceptions, maybe this is an offense that can put up a touchdown more per game.

On defense, it’s going to be about how much can be extracted from the linebacker corps after losing all of last season’s starters and if an experienced secondary can tighten the clamps.

Next: Top 10 running backs in Michigan history

Fickell getting Cincinnati to a bowl game in his first season is a very realistic goal. The Bearcats likely won’t be seeing a 10-win season like they put together in 2012, but there can be multiple steps taken in that direction in 2017.

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