We're approaching the Spring Game, and the past few weeks haven't been very generous to Michigan football recruiting. The Wolverines have seen top targets commit elsewhere, and were just eliminated from the recruitment of the No.1 prospect in America, Jackson Cantwell.
These struggles are especially frustrating when looking at what Michigan's rivals are doing on the recruiting trail. USC has the No. 1 class in the nation with 22 commits. Notre Dame checks in at No. 3 with 11 commits. Ohio State is right behind them at No. 4. Illinois and Penn State are in the top 10, while Oregon checks in at No. 13. Michigan football has three commits and checks in at No. 55.
Why shouldn't this be too concerning?
Ultimately, these struggles come down to one thing: NIL. We know that Michigan football can be a superpower when it comes to NIL. So why aren't the Wolverines dominating right now? There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding NIL, with the House bill and revenue sharing set to be enacted any time now.
This will fundamentally change how NIL is done, and Michigan football doesn't want to make a bunch of promises to recruits that it then has to go back on once the rules change. There should be more clarity here very shortly, and Michigan appears to be planning on discussing specific NIL deals during the official visit season, which will be in full stride by the Summer.
There is nothing to suggest that Michigan is going back to how it was prior to the last recruiting cycle with NIL. All indications are that the Wolverines will continue to be very aggressive and will compete for the best prospects in the nation. They're just being patient.
The benefit here, in Michigan's case, is that NIL recruitments don't have strict timelines. A recruit may commit to one school but still be open to hearing offers from others. With NIL, getting flips is much easier than in the past. Just look at the recruitments of Michigan signees Nate Marshall and Ty Haywood from last cycle.
Haywood was committed to Alabama, his childhood favorite team, for a long time. But once Michigan made a push for Haywood, fueled by NIL, the Wolverines were able to win him over. Likewise, Nate Marshall committed to Michigan early in the cycle, before the Wolverines were competitive in NIL. He flipped to Auburn, which was an NIL player, and then ended up flipping back to Michigan once the Wolverines figured out NIL.
In today's game, NIL has made verbal commitments mean very little. While there are, of course, prospects who aren't prioritizing NIL who will stay true to their word, life changing money is a very big factor in lots of recruitments. A commitment isn't fully safe until national signing day.
I'd expect Michigan to see far more results during the Summer. If the season comes around and the Wolverines haven't reached double-digit commits, it may be time to get concerned. But for now, there is plenty of time to turn things around.