Why Michigan is the most upset-proof No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament

For much of the regular season, it appeared as though Michigan had the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament locked up. Then, with a late-season non-conference loss to Duke and a loss on Sunday at the hands of Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Wolverines slid to the No. 3 overall seed in the tournament behind the Blue Devils and Arizona. 

Since backup point guard LJ Cason’s season-ending injury in the final game of February, the Wolverines have looked more vulnerable than they have all season. Yet, despite a few red flags popping up in March, the Wolverines are still the most trustworthy of the No. 1 seeds when it comes to filling out your March Madness bracket. 

Last season, for just the second time in NCAA Tournament history, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. Though the tournament is trending more chalk as NIL and the Transfer Portal continue to funnel the talent upwards, that’s unlikely to happen again. But if you’re betting against one of the No. 1 seeds, I wouldn’t make it Michigan. 

Michigan isn’t immune to an upset, but it’s close

Before we look at the Midwest Region and Michigan’s path to the Final Four, let’s look at the team itself. The Cason injury is looming large, even with star freshman Trey McKenney and wily veteran Roddy Gayle Jr. able to fill those minutes running the offense when Elliot Cadeau goes to the bench. Yet, the backcourt isn’t the reason this Michigan team is entering the NCAA Tournament at 31-3, so it shouldn’t be the reason to doubt them either. 

The reason Michigan has been so dominant is the front court. In losses to Duke and Purdue, Michigan hasn’t shot it well, and it needs to against opponents of that caliber, but this team is built to negate the variance that a high three-point attempt rate is bound to introduce to any team. 

Michigan is 137th in Division I in three-point attempt rate, hoisting 41.8 percent of its shots from beyond the arc. That’s still a relatively high rate, but when it’s paired with 39.0 points in the paint per game, 14.8 second chance points, and a 37.7 percent free throw attempt rate, Michigan’s offense has not been particularly volatile. 

Last season, Florida won a title with a massive front court that went four-deep with near seven-footers. The Gators had great shot-makers in the backcourt, but the reason they won it all, and the reason they’re a No. 1 seed again this year, is their dominance on the interior. 

In a lot of ways, Dusty May copied that formula, one he already had a good grasp on last season with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. When Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr., and Yaxel Lendeborg all share the floor together this season, Michigan has a net rating of +24.7, which would rank fifth in the country. 

That group also produces an offensive rebound rate of 36.9 percent, and dominates at the rim and in the paint. Sometimes the shots don’t fall, but with that identity, Michigan has an insanely high floor that should carry it through most games. 

The Midwest Region is a favorable draw for Michigan

Then, there’s the bracket. Iowa State looks like a legitimate national championship contender. Milan Momcilovic is the best shooter in the country, Joshua Jefferson was a second-team All-American, and their veteran backcourt is one of the steadiest in the country. That won’t be an easy matchup in the Elite Eight, if the seeds hold, but the other games along the way shouldn’t be too scary for the Wolverines. 

The No. 4 seed in the region, Alabama, may be without its starting point guard, Aden Holloway, who was arrested on Monday for marijuana possession. The No. 5 seed Texas Tech is without first-team All-American JT Toppin, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in February, and could be without third-team All-American Christian Anderson, who had an injury scare on the LED glass floor at the Big 12 Tournament. 

The Sweet 16 looks like a lock for Michigan, with either Georgia or Saint Louis ahead in the Round of 32, and even in the Regional Semifinal, the Wolverines will be considerable favorites over the undermanned Crimson Tide, Red Raiders, or whichever Cinderella found its way to Chicago.