Early on in Michigan’s 90-77 Sweet 16 win over Alabama on Friday night in Chicago, color commentator Steve Lappas started asking the same question that loomed large in Dusty May’s mind heading into this season: ‘Can Aday Mara play in this game?’
In the first half, Michigan’s 7-foot-4 center struggled to keep up with Nate Oats’s blistering pace and five-out offense. In the second half, Michigan slowed the game and pulled away. But the Mara problem Alabama presented might be the key to derailing the Wolverines’ national title run.
Some team may be able to pull it off, but that team is not Tennessee, Michigan’s opponent in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday.
Alabama played Michigan’s three-big lineup off the floor on Friday night
From the moment he put his roster together, May couldn’t have been sure that his three-big lineup with Mara, Morez Johnson Jr., and Yaxel Lendeborg would work. Mara’s passing and Lendeborg’s continued development as a ball-handler and three-point shooter made it not just possible, but one of the most dominant lineups in the country.
When Michigan’s three bigs were on the floor together this season, the Wolverines had a 99th percentile net rating, a 99th percentile defensive rating, and a 99th percentile opponent effective field goal percentage (per CBBanalytics.com). You can argue it was the best defensive trio in the country.
Yet, against Alabama’s five-out offense, that trio posted some alarming numbers.
Michigan's 3-big lineup | Season | vs. Alabama |
|---|---|---|
+/- | +145 (340 minutes) | -5 (8 minutes) |
net rating | +25.6 | -41.1 |
off rating | 120.5 | 90.5 |
def rating | 94.9 | 131.6 |
opp 3pt FG% | 30.7% | 44.4% |
opp 3pt att rate | 47.1% | 56.3% |
Defensively, Mara couldn’t manage the pace. Even with his rim protection, he was a total negative on defense, especially in the eight minutes that May dared to play them together. The offensive numbers were good over the course of Mara’s 27 minutes, with a 125.4 rating. But Alabama played Michigan out of its big lineup, and that’s an issue. It would be a bigger one if the Wolverines’ remaining potential matchups weren’t such ideal matchups to supersize against.
The problem is not Mara’s alone. Morez Johnson Jr. has struggled mightily in the tournament and couldn’t buy a bucket for much of the night. Yet, in his minutes with Lendeborg, Michigan’s net rating against Alabama was +42.4. He can adjust to the up-tempo style with rim runs and hits an impressive rate of threes as a trailing, and is athletic enough to defend in transition. Mara needs a half-court game; he’s dominant when he gets one, and that’s exactly what Tennessee will give him.
Tennessee is the perfect matchup for Dusty May to bring it back
This season, Tennessee averaged 10.7 fast-break points per game, but in the NCAA Tournament. That has dropped to just under eight points per game, and only 9.9 percent of the Volunteers' scoring has come from the fast-break. Not only are the Vols a methodically-paced, half-court offensive team, but they’re one that’s relying on a staggering 44.4 percent offensive rate to carry it through the Big Dance.
With a physical front court featuring Felix Okpara, J.P. Estrella, and Nate Ament, plus Jaylen Carey coming off the bench, the Vols are a mirror image of Michigan, or a faux version, and a much more volatile one.
Even through this three-game tournament run, Tennessee is turning the ball over at an 18.1 percent rate. It’s been a problem all season, but the Vols' ability to bully teams on the interior, paired with some hot shooting from three, has catalyzed an unexpected run. Now, it will be put to the test against the real thing.
In a game well-suited to Mara’s strengths and set up perfectly for Lendeborg to comfortably play the three without being exposed on the defensive end in a matchup with a guard, as he drew against Labaron Philon Jr. at times on Friday, Michigan should have no problems getting back to the Final Four for the first time since 2018.
If they do get to Indianapolis, they’ll almost certainly find three teams waiting for them that built in a similar image. May’s three-big lineup escaped its biggest scare, but Alabama won’t be the biggest test for Michigan in the NCAA Tournament. That team is already waiting for the Wolverines after cutting down the nets on Friday night in San Jose.