Michigan women's basketball defeated Holy Cross by 35 and NC State by 29 points, but will have a tough time against Louisville, which is ranked #11 in the NCAA’s NET ratings, five slots below #6 Michigan.
Louisville’s lineup has height and bulk on the inside, with 6’ 3” junior Elif Istanbulluoglu and 6’ 2” senior Laura Ziegler. In their last game against NC State, Istanbulluoglu (pronounced is-tan-bool-loo-oh-loo) had 18 points on 7-for-11 shooting, 11 rebounds, and three assists. One of which was a textbook high-low pass to Ziegler, who had pinned her defender, finishing for an easy lay-up. She had 12 points, eight rebounds, and two blocks.
In February, Michigan’s three losses came against Iowa and UCLA, both of whom got strong performances from their tall and bulky inside game. In the two losses to Iowa, 6’ 4” sophomore Ava Heiden had great games. In the first one, she had 24 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks, and in the second one in the Big Ten Tournament, Heiden was in foul trouble, but still had 15 points and two blocks. Against UCLA, 6’ 7” senior Lauren Betts had 16 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, and three blocks.
However, Michigan’s strong backcourt play should stymie Louisville’s guards. In their first two games in the tournament, Michigan forced 20 turnovers against Holy Cross and 22 against NC State. Although Louisville’s primary ballhandler, sophomore Tajianna Roberts, was selected for the second team All-ACC, her assist-to-turnover ratio is only so-so, at 1:8, so she should be susceptible to pressure. In her last game against Alabama, a non-pressing team, she had three turnovers, and her teammate, sophomore Imari Berry, the other ballhandler, had six.
On the offensive side, Michigan’s offense is based on shot-volume and good marksmanship from its guards. Against NC State, Michigan as a team shot a poor 30.9% from 3-point range, but sophomore Mila Holloway’s 1-of-8 shooting dragged down the average. Sophomores Syla Swords and Olivia Olson combined for 7-15. Against Alabama, Louisville left shooters open, and their opponents shot 46.2% for the game. Look for Michigan to make its 3-point shots count.
The gamblers are picking Michigan, with the spread having them as favorites by 4.5 and the money line is Michigan -180/Louisville +146. But the sports websites are going the other way, with Yahoo and ESPN picking Louisville. This writer sees Louisville succumbing to Michigan’s press, who will convert the turnover to points. However, Louisville will dominate inside and try to slow the game down. It’ll be close, but Michigan’s been through a tough Big Ten season and what they’ve learned along the way will be the difference.