It's only the fourth game of the season for Michigan football, but there is a lot at stake. If the Wolverines lose to 11th-ranked USC, they will have a long road back to playoff contention.
The defending national champion has its back against the wall. Sure, Michigan football could win seven of the next eight and make the playoff with a win over Oregon or Ohio State, but that's a tall order.
And it would be painful to lose back-to-back "big" home games. It's one thing to beat Arkansas State and Fresno State, but the Wolverines need to hold serve in this game, even if they are a 6.5-point underdog.
Alex Orji will be the starting quarterback for Michigan football. The offense should look different, but how different is a big question. Can you really overhaul an offense in a week? How much time did the Wolverines spend this offseason on being a zone-read/option team?
We know those things are in the playbook, but making those reads consistently well takes time. We'll see how things play out but there are five bold predictions for Michigan football and USC, as well as a score prediction at the end.
Michigan football runs for over 200 yards
The Wolverines ran for over 300 yards last week and they could use a similar effort on Saturday. USC has only played two games but they are allowing 4.2 yards per attempt and struggled to stop the run against LSU -- the Tigers just wanted to throw.
Michigan football needs to be patient with the run game. It needs long drives that eat clock. An ideal gameplan probably 50 or so rushing attempts. I'm not sure Michigan will get there, but I expect 20 carries for Kalel Mullings, a lot of Donovan Edwards, and a lot of Orji.
Max Bredeson will have a key role to play. Andrew Gentry served as an extra tight end and I expect more packages like that. The Wolverines need to get creative but they also just need to win up front and I think they do to a certain extent.
Alex Orji hits one bomb
Every Michigan football fan remembers the pass that Alex Orji threw over the head of a wide-open Fred Moore last week against Arkansas State.
The good news was that Michigan was able to get a receiver open like that, in part, because of the attention Arkansas State had to pay to the line of scrimmage.
Orji is a threat to run and not just on designed run plays either. That will add another element to the defense and if Michigan football is successful running the ball, the deep shots will be open.
Linebackers and defensive backs will start creeping up and you might even have a fake QB power turn into a play-action -- something where the defense thinks Orji will run and he throws -- deep.
I'm not saying Orji is going to hit on a bunch or all of those against USC. But at some point, they will have to devote more resources to the box and the Wolverines hit at least one 40-yard pass play with Orji.
Michigan will make USC one-dimensional
USC didn't find much success running the ball against LSU. The Trojans ran the ball 23 times for 69 yards and that's what I expect to see on Saturday.
Michigan football has a strong defensive line. There were issues against Texas on defense, especially with some of the coverage and communication. The front four didn't do a great job getting pressure or staying in their rush lanes, but Quinn Ewers was part of that.
Texas also has one of the best offensive lines in the country. I'm not sure you can say that about USC. Michigan should be able to win enough on the defensive line to shut down the running game and force Miller Moss and company to win the game through the air.
Kalel Mullings accounts for 150 total yards
One thing Michigan football needs to do with Alex Orji at quarterback is throw the football more to the running backs.
While most Michigan football fans want to see Donovan Edwards get involved in the passing game, we just haven't seen it. However, we have seen Mullings make some plays in the passing game and it's something the defense probably won't be expecting as much.
I'm hopeful that Sherrone Moore and Michigan football will put Edwards and Mullings on the field at the same time, but even if not, I have a feeling Mullings will get involved in the passing game. I can see him rushing for over 100 yards and making a few catches too to reach 150 total yards.
It was clear last week that he's the best running back on this team. He can make people miss or run over them. Hassan Haskins is the best comparison but it feels like you could still have a strong combo in Mullings and Edwards if they are both used correctly.
Max Bredeson catches a touchdown
Jim Harbaugh talked about how offensive linemen are weapons last year after the NFL draft when the Chargers took an O-line with their first-round pick.
Max Bredeson isn't an offensive lineman, but he sure is a weapon as a blocker and Michigan football needs to find as many ways to take advantage of him as possible.
Bredeson is tremendous in the run game, so run plays that get him in a position to do what he does best. That can take some pressure off the offensive line and also create chances for other plays. The more defenses sell out to stop the run, the more play-action passes will become available.
With all of the success I expect Michigan to have on the ground, I think we'll see a few passes to Bredeson and believe he'll get one in the red zone for a touchdown.
Michigan football vs. USC score prediction
I think Michigan will do some good things. The offense will find some success on the ground but if Colston Loveland doesn't play, I'm not sure there are enough weapons to beat a talented USC team. Moss has been playing well at quarterback and doesn't make many mistakes. USC has also allowed just two sacks this season and I'm worried that Wink Martindale will get blitz happy.
Some of those might work, but Michigan needs to get back to what worked last season, which was playing safeties deep. However, that requires a defensive front who can win without as many guys in the box.
That remains to be seen, plus I have big questions about the linebackers in coverage. USC didn't have to outrun LSU to win and they won't have to on Saturday either. I'm going to change slightly and say Michigan covers the spread, but I think USC (unfortunately) wins the game thanks to a couple of costly giveaways by the Michigan offense.
Prediction: USC 24, Michigan 20