For the second time in three weeks, Michigan football will be an underdog at the Big House. It's hard to believe after the home dominance over the past three seasons.
But this is a different Michigan football program. Jim Harbaugh isn't the head coach anymore and despite all the "continuity" hires, the Wolverines are still searching for their identity under Sherrone Moore.
Some of the personnel struggles haven't helped. Moore also wasn't helped by the timing of Harbaugh's departure or the decision to leave by J.J. McCarthy. It's easy to say he should have gotten a transfer portal quarterback, but he was hired a month after all the good ones were taken.
Moore changed course at quarterback this week, going to Alex Orji. That should mean a much different offense and hopefully, a more successful one.
Looking ahead to Saturday, Michigan football is a 6.5-point underdog and here are three reasons they can pull off the upset against USC.
An amped up running game
At the very least, there's no question about the offensive identity of Michigan football. The Wolverines are going to be a run-based offense. For the first time since Denard Robinson was playing quarterback, the QB-run game and the zone-read will be key parts of the offense.
USC is much better defensively this season. But they have allowed four yards per attempt during the first two games and haven't had to face a QB like Orji. Michigan's offensive line was better with Greg Crippen and my hope that is he gets the nod at center, although it seems unlikely.
USC has struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, as well as physical teams. This will be a test for their defense, but with Orji, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings, Michigan should be able to establish the run, which would be a massive step toward a win.
The defensive line
Michigan's front four didn't play well against Texas. The Wolverines were on the field for a lot of plays, but it was a disappointing effort.
Mason Graham needs to have a bigger impact, so do Kenneth Grant, Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart. Those guys need to be active on Saturday and frankly, they need to dominate.
Miller Moss has some talented pass-catchers to work with. But, he's only making his fourth career start and it feels like the Wolverines could fluster him if they can stop the run and put the game on his shoulders.
Wink Martindale will need to redeem himself, but Miller isn't Quinn Ewers and USC isn't Texas. The U-M defensive line should be able to win this matchup and it will be a lost cause if they don't.
USC's defense isn't all that great
The USC defense has improved this season but the sample size is pretty small and if we are saying that the Trojans have made a massive improvement based on the LSU game, well, that's not accurate.
LSU rolled up 421 yards of total offense. The Tigers threw for over 300 yards, but they also ran the ball 25 times for 113 yards. LSU didn't run the quarterback at all ether. The Trojans have intercepted one pass in each of the first two games,
USC's pass rush leaves a lot to be desired too. The Trojans have just two sacks in two games. So I'm not that frightened of a defense that averages one sack and one takeaway per game. Michigan football doesn't the ability to throw for 300 yards, but if the Wolverines can establish the run, with Orji, plenty of throws will be open, especially if Colston Loveland is available.
USC is more talented at the skill positions but I'd give Michigan the edge in the trenches and if the Wolverines can't bully this team, that will be a terrible sign moving forward.