It’s a #1 party. No #2 seeds invited.
The Women’s Final Four is the area in the club with a velvet rope separating the VIPs from the rabble. With #1 seeds UConn and UCLA lounging haughtily, fellow #1 seeds South Carolina and Texas approach. With a hand on the rope, the bouncer nods warmly and says, “Welcome! We were expecting you!” After replacing the rope, the bouncer glares at #2 seed Michigan and #3 seed TCU.
If you’re looking at stats to figure out Michigan’s chances today, check out this one: #1 seeds have won the national championship 23 times, while #2 seeds have won the national championship five times. Sure, times are changing with untethered player movement and NIL opportunities, but programs like the #1 seeds are the schools to play for if you want to win it all. But those teams on the wrong side of the rope will need the game of their lives for the bouncer to let them in.
Stacked Longhorn lineup on a roll
Texas has the size that’s troubled Michigan before. Junior Breya Cunningham is 6' 4" and Kyla Oldacre is 6’ 6”, while their best player and an All-American last year, junior Madison Booker is 6’ 1”. Booker does it all, of course. She leads the team in minutes, rebounds, and points, and is second in assists and steals. Graduate student Rori Harmon is a high-powered point guard who runs the show. She holds Texas’ assist and steals records and is the only player in NCAA women’s basketball history to reach 1,500-plus points, 900-plus assists, 600-plus rebounds, and 350-plus steals. Texas also has a deep bench, with ten players averaging double digit minutes.
Texas is coming off its first SEC tournament championship, after being in the conference for just two years. They’ve used that momentum to crush Missouri State and Oregon by 42 points each, and cruise by Kentucky by 22. They’re playing excellent basketball at the right time of year.
But the game is played on the hardwood…
The odds are decidedly against Michigan: spread -10.5, moneyline Texas -520 and Michigan +390. But Barnes Arico’s team have looked at these 1 seeds square in the eye and battled, losing to UConn by three, while UConn won every other game this season by at least 13 points, including 30 wins by 25 or more. In early February against UCLA, Michigan was a sophomore Syla Swords three-point attempt away from sending the game to overtime.
With all that, Michigan can crash the party because the Wolverines sound realistic but confident. In the Michigan Daily, sophomore Olivia Olson said, “We played the whole season to get to this moment. And so, we’re going to keep playing our hardest and keep the characteristics of Michigan basketball.” Also in the Michigan Daily, sophomore Mila Holloway said, “They are a team that likes to punch first, and we try to have that same identity. So, I’m excited to see who comes out and gets the upper hand early.”
The Wolverines also have an extra bit of motivation due to the mini controversy of the Texas nameplate “diss.” When a team wins in the NCAA Tournament, the players celebrate by attaching the team’s nameplate on a life-size bracket. But after defeating Kentucky, the Longhorns placed the Texas nameplate to the regional champions line, which the Michigan players interpreted as an assumption the Longhorns will win Monday night.
“We’re taking it personal,” Olson told The Detroit News on Sunday in the locker room. "We’re excited to go out there and compete. All I’m going to say is, yeah, we’re going to take it personal."
“I think it’s really cocky of them,” added junior Ashley Sofilkanich, also in the Detroit News. “I don’t think that’s mature at all. I don’t want to spread any hate, but personally I wouldn’t do that. It definitely gives us some extra fuel for the game just to be disrespected like that. I know they probably thought it was funny. It’s something you don’t do. We’re excited for tomorrow.”
It may have been a harmless mistake but in games with potential to be decided in the last second, extra fuel is all that may be needed to show you belong.