Two years into his tenure in Ann Arbor, Dusty May might have the best team in the country. Michigan is No. 2 in the country at 20-1 overall and No. 2 in KenPom, narrowly trailing undefeated Arizona.
Big Ten play has presented some struggles for the Wolverines, but with back-to-back wins over then No. 5 Nebraska and then No. 7 Michigan State last week, it’s easy to say that Michigan is back on track and ready to cruise to a Big Ten title. Those victories, however, may be shrouding a growing weakness that could be a major concern when the calendar flips to March, and it’s a familiar one for May.
Michigan’s old turnover troubles have suddenly reappeared
The biggest weakness of last year’s Michigan team, which won the Big Ten and advanced to the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed, was turnovers. For the season, Michigan’s turnover rate was 17.1 percent (per CBBanalytics.com), by far the worst in the conference, and ultimately allowed 23 points off 15 turnovers in its season-ending loss to Auburn.
This year’s group, with UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau replacing Tre Donaldson at point guard, and less ball-handling responsibility falling on the front court than Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin had to shoulder in 2024-25, the turnovers have largely subsided. The season-long turnover rate of 14.9 percent is 49th percentile in the country and 14th in the 18-team Big Ten.
It’s not a massive improvement, but certainly a meaningful one. Except that recently, regression has hit, and hit hard. Though the Wolverines are 5-0 in their last five, including two top 10 wins, their turnover rate has skyrocketed beyond last year’s 17.1 percent to 19.2 percent, a sixth-percentile mark. Opponents are also scoring 17.0 points off those 14.6 turnovers a game.
Over that stretch, Michigan’s margin of victory is just 10.6, and its net rating has fallen from 29.7 for the year to 15.2, the difference between a great team and a good one.
In a lot of ways, these are champagne problems, and I’m not talking about Champaign, Illinois. Michigan is, if not the best, the second-best team in the country, and while taking down two of its top challengers in the Big Ten, has given the ball away a few more times than May or anybody would like. And if this wasn’t the team’s Achilles heel last year, it would be easy to hand-wave away. But it was, and now it’s back.
Michigan doesn’t have a particularly deep backcourt. Its three leading scorers are all front-court players, standing 6-foot-9 or taller. That leaves Cadeau with an inordinate amount of ball-handling and decision-making on his plate, even for a point guard.
Defenses have seemingly begun to figure that out as he’s averaged five turnovers a game during that five-game stretch. If Michigan is to win its first national championship since 1989, May will need to establish some type of pressure release valve for his point guard, or the Wolverines will give away a great shot at a deep March Madness run.
They can win with the turnovers for now, but not forever. If it doesn’t get cleaned up, it’ll be a major red flag next month.