Matt Painter just laid the blueprint for a Michigan March Madness disaster

Dusty May’s Wolverines failed to repeat as Big Ten Tournament champions on Selection Sunday, falling to Purdue 80-72 in the title game. Still, the Wolverines are on the one-line as the top seed in the Midwest Region, set to play either UMBC or Howard as the No. 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Buffalo, New York. 

Duke ripped the No. 1 overall seed away from the Wolverines with a head-to-head win in Washington, D.C., on February 21. However, after Duke’s starting point guard, Caleb Foster, went down with a right foot injury in the regular season finale, which will keep him out at least the first two weekends of March Madness, Michigan replaced the Blue Devils as the betting favorite to win it all. 

May took the Wolverines to the Sweet 16 in his first season, but after his team’s dominance in Year 2, anything less than the Final Four would almost feel like a disaster. Well, on Sunday, Purdue head coach Matt Painter laid the blueprint to upset Michigan this month. 

Purdue’s small-ball was the antidote to Michigan’s supersized lineups

Under Matt Painter, Purdue has been known as the home of giants. From Isaac Haas to Matt Haarms, Zach Edey, and this year, seven-footers Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen. However, after limping down the stretch of the regular season, Painter’s team rediscovered its identity in Chicago, and on Sunday, he unlocked his star seniors, Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, by unveiling a small-ball lineup that slotted the 6-foot-9 TKR at center opposite 7-foot-4 Aday Mara. 

Smith, who is closing in on the all-time assist lead in college basketball history, constantly hunted Mara in ball-screens and terrorized his drop coverage with pocket passes to TKR, who routinely knocked down his patented push-shot from the paint en route to a 20-point performance. Then, when Michigan switched instead of playing Mara in drop, Smith torched the Wolverines’ bigs with 14 points to go with his game-high 11 assists. Plus, Cluff was the game's high scorer with 21 points, often attacking mismatches in the post. 

Offensively, Michigan didn’t hit enough shots to knock off Purdue. It was the same problem the Wolverines had against Duke when they went 6-25 from three in that one and 7-24 on Sunday. If those fall, including two threes late from Trey McKenney and Yaxel Lendeborg that went halfway down before popping out, Michigan may be the Big Ten Tournament champ and No. 1 overall seed. Still, the defensive issues that Purdue exploited are impossible to ignore. 

Michigan is the No. 1 team in the country by defensive efficiency. Much of that is because of its three-big lineup with Mara’s rim protection, Lendeborg’s on-ball versatility and point-of-attack aggression, and Morez Johnson Jr.’s physicality and rebounding. May can’t go away from that identity, but a whiley veteran point guard like Smith and a smart coach who is willing to go small-ball could be a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines. 

The question, though, is whether any team in the Midwest Region will be able to replicate the precision displayed by Smith, TKR, and Cluff on Sunday. The answer is probably not. Still, it’s never good to have a chink in the armor exposed this time of year.