Michigan relinquished the top spot in the AP Poll this week after its 68-63 loss to Duke, which subsequently took Michigan’s place at No. 1. The loss was the Wolverines’ second of the year, and on Tuesday night, they bounced back into the win column, downing Minnesota 77-67 in Ann Arbor.
However, to reclaim the throne as the best team in college basketball, Michigan needs a resounding win on Friday night over No. 10 Illinois for its fourth top-10 victory of the season. To do that, Dusty May’s team will have to get back to what worked so well early in the season and what they’ve gotten away from, of late.
Michigan has slowed its pace from the start of the season
Through Michigan’s 14-0 start to the year, the Wolverines were one of the most up-tempo teams in the country. Their pace of 74.0 possessions per 40 minutes was 100th percentile in college basketball, and with it, they averaged 17.3 fast-break points per game. They were a dominant force with that fast-paced attack, leaning on Yaxel Lendeborg’s ability to grab-and-go, and posting a 100th percentile net rating of 37.7 (per CBBanalytics.com).
Michigan’s 15th game of the season brought the first loss, a 91-88 defeat at the hands of Wisconsin, and in effect began the second half of the season. Across that stretch, through the heart of Big Ten play, the Wolverines took on a new identity, using their size to bludgeon teams in the paint and on the offensive boards while playing considerably slower.
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While both methods of play have worked for Dusty May, the offense bogged down against Duke’s stout half-court defense, and as they struggled to hit shots, it was almost as if they couldn’t find that next gear, which has led to so many “kill shots” or 10-0 runs this season.
The Blue Devils’ size was part of the issue, limiting Michigan to just 57 percent shooting at the rim, forcing a huge portion of its shots coming from the outside, and an alarming 35.6 field goal percentage on half court possesions. Illinois is even bigger, and while its defensive metrics aren’t quite as impressive as Duke’s, if Michigan is content to trade half-court possessions with the Illini, it could be trouble on Friday night.
It’s time to speed things back up vs. No. 10 Illinois
Illinois has fantastic positional size, and with the Ivisic twins, Brad Underwood has two legit seven-footers at his disposal. Especially with the return of Kylan Boswell as a point of attack defender, Illinois can be one of the most difficult teams to score on in the half-court. The numbers back that up with opponents shooting 37.1 percent in the half-court this season. In transition, that bumps to 55.8 percent.
The best way to beat Illinois is to beat the Illini down the floor. Though Michigan is one of the most efficient half-court offenses in the country, the Wolverines should look to run early and often to secure another top 10 win and all but secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.