The Michigan basketball team will host Wake Forest at the 2025 Wolverine-Deacon Challenge, Tuesday, November 11th, at 6:30 PM at downtown Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena. ESPN’s Jay Bilas ranks Michigan at #7 and Wake Forest at #51, and I scoured the internet but couldn’t find odds that I trust, although it seems that it’s a coin flip with a combined score around 160. So, what do we wish to see in this early-season matchup?
1. Continued “Big Man” Dominance
Wake Forest comes up, uh, short in comparison to Michigan’s 7’ 3” junior transfer Aday Mara, 6’ 9” sophomore transfer Morez Johnson Jr., 6’ 9” All American transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, and 6’ 8” team captain Will Tschetter. Demon Deacons are led in rebounding by 6’5” senior Mekhi Mason (10), 6’ 7” grad student Tre’Von Spillers (8), and 6’ 7” sophomore Juke Harris (7). Combined, they have five blocked shots in two games, while Mara had five against Oakland.
With such an advantage we wish to see inside efficiency (dunks, post ups, and a shot chart with little basketballs clustered around the rim), dominance at the backboard (no second shots in our end and put backs/second chances at theirs), and defensive anchors (more on the latter under #3).
2. Point Guard Development
Junior transfer Elliot Cadeau was the top-ranked point guard coming out of high school (12th overall), but after two years in the mess that was the UNC offense, he transferred. He’ll be leaving behind his ACC-leading 113 turnovers in the 2024-25 season, and the not-so-quiet whispers that his high turnover rate was a factor in the team's losses and underwhelming season. But on the University of Michigan’s “Defend the Block,” Dusty zeroed in on Cadeau’s plus skill: “We felt like, from a chemistry perspective, having a true pass-first point guard would allow us to keep everyone happy. That's what Elliot does.” Dusty and his staff have eyes and must’ve seen on the tape the Tar Heels' offensive movement and pace, which were glacial, and that the point guard was not at fault. "The more talented we get, the more weapons we have on our roster, it makes it even more integral to have a point guard who's trying to set those guys up.”
But what’s going to happen when Cadeau sits? During the so-called “exhibitions”, sophomore LJ Cason was the back up, but in the first game, he was sidelined with a minor injury. It was five-star freshman Trey McKenney tasked with stepping in at point. Pundits expected his role to be a “3 & D” guy, but against Oakland (yes, opponent strength caveats apply) he looked more than that, with four assists to no turnovers. His first was a left-handed wraparound to Johnson for a dunk and another one was to Johnson on an out of bounds play for a lay up. By the way, he was six of eight from three.
Sophomore LJ Cason is an intriguing option because of his quickness and aggressiveness. Others will be senior Roddy Gayle, Jr., and grad student Nimari Burnett. Gayle is interesting, especially in a “five out” set, where all offensive players are outside the three-point line and he is at the top with the ball. He can easily get to the rim one-on-one and convert, which means that whoever is guarding him will need help, and that’s where the fun begins. You get a stand-still three! You get a lob dunk. And I get an “and one”!
3. Dominating Defense
With Cadeau, McKenney, Cason, Gayle, Burnett, and Yax, Michigan has six “plus” one-on-one defenders. Combining that with the switch-heavy tactic the Wolverines employ, it means that the defense can be extended beyond the three-point line. When you have shot erasers in Johnson, Mara, and Yax, the defense can play the pass, gamble on steals, and run three-point shooters off their spot. This is defensive control when you force opponents to take difficult outside shots, make that extra pass, or risk getting the ball back in your face if you take it to the rim.
Facing rim protectors and athletic defenders means that there'll need to be adjustments to the game plan. Teams with slashers like Wake Forest will have to live on pull ups or dishes to a nominally open wing or corner. Isolations will not be all that effective. At one point against Oakland, a Grizzlie posted Cadeau on the right block and tried to get more space by bumping him three times and launching a fade away that Mara blocked with his left hand.
When facing dominant big men, adjustments must be made, and since having your players grow taller isn’t an option, changing the game plan is the only thing left for Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes to do. He’s going to need plan B and C. And what we really want to see is that these plans won’t work either.