Michigan will play in its second Top-25 matchup in the past three weeks as the 17th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will visit the 18th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.
Michigan football has won five games in a row over the Hawkeyes. This game might closely resemble the 2019 game, in which Aidan Hutchinson dominated, and neither offense could anything Iowa passed for 262 yards and was intercepted three times.
Going into this game, Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at 39 points, so the oddmakers are expecting a 21-17 score in favor of the Wolverines. That seems like a lot of points.
It's probably the kind of game we will see, though. This one could remind Michigan football fans of Week 2 against Oklahoma, where a punt can be a good play. That's Iowa football in a nutshell.
Here are three reasons Michigan fans can be confident in a win.
This is like every other Iowa offense
Hank Brown will be the quarterback on Saturday. Hawkeye fans are confident that he will be able to attack Michigan's man coverage on wide receiver Tony Diaz and others.
Yet, it feels like Iowa fans are getting a little ahead of themselves. Ever since Cade McNamara transferred there to be the starting quarterback, Iowa fans have been telling anyone who will listen that this is the year their offense explodes.
We are still waiting.
Iowa put up some impressive numbers during the non-conference schedule. At least in two of the three games. Iowa State held Iowa to 16 points and under 300 total yards.
Michigan's defense is better than Iowa State's. There shouldn't be much question about that, especially now that Iowa State doesn't have Matt Campbell, who took all the good players.
Iowa averaged less than four yards per rushing attempt against Iowa State, so it's not like the Hawkeyes are unstoppable. The Wolverines might also be the best man-coverage team in the country.
If this game comes down to the Iowa receivers/Michigan cornerbacks in man coverage, that's a great thing for the Wolverines.
Michigan's running game will be better
The Wolverines' running game hasn't met expectations yet. The jet sweep game has been featured prominently, but even Jason Beck said this week that if it doesn't work, they need to get away from it.
Defenses are just overplaying it right now. Michigan went back to more traditional run stuff in the second half against UTEP and finished with over 200 rushing yards. It also ran for 152 against Oklahoma.
Iowa is going to do what every team has done to Michigan: load the box and make Bryce Underwood try to beat them. Will he be able to?
We'll see. I'm less concerned with Bryce winning the game than I am him losing it. So I wouldn't mind seeing double-digit rushing attempts. Iowa is going to force him to be patient. The Hawkeyes will try to limit big plays, and that could mean chances for Bryce to escape the pocket.
This game feels less about designed runs and more about him taking chances when they are there, sort of like J.J. McCarthy did back in 2022. Underwood running up the middle 10-15 times feels like that will lead to a fumble and turning the ball over is the one way Michigan loses this game.
The turnover problem is overstated
Michigan has put the ball on the ground way too much. However, Underwood hasn't really had a pass that has come close to being intercepted since the first half ended against Western Michigan.
There were some rough moments in that game. But, he protected the ball against Oklahoma. He fumbled last week, but again, didn't put the ball in harms way throwing it.
Iowa will give the Wolverines chances in the passing game. It feels like J.J. Buchanan or Andrew Marsh will be a mismatch for whoever is covering them. Keep an eye on Hogan Hansen, too.
I'm not expecting a big game from Bryce. The only thing he needs to do is pick up some third downs and protect the ball. He might not need 100 yards passing to win this game, but an interception or two will definitely lose it.
That being said, Underwood was sharp the past two weeks. If he can play clean football, Michigan fans can be confident in a win.
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