3 reasons Michigan basketball can beat Auburn in Sweet 16

Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) dribbles the ball into positions against Texas A&M Aggies forward Andersson Garcia (11) during the first half of the second round of the NCAA tournament at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, Saturday. March 22, 2025.
Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) dribbles the ball into positions against Texas A&M Aggies forward Andersson Garcia (11) during the first half of the second round of the NCAA tournament at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, Saturday. March 22, 2025. | Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Sweet 16 resumes on Thursday night, but for Michigan basketball, the wait is a little longer as the Wolverines will play Auburn on Friday night at approximately 9:39 PM EST.

The Wolverines will follow Michigan State and Ole Miss. The winner of that game is who Michigan basketball would play if it can upset Auburn.

The top-seeded Tigers are loaded. They have possibly the National Player of the Year in Johni Broome, and four deadly 3-point shooters surrounding him. Auburn has the No. 3 offense according to Kenpom and also the No. 12 defense.

Yet, Michigan is a unique matchup. The Wolverines have the size to handle Auburn's two big lineup. They also tend to switch most screens. Auburn does much of the same thing.

Both teams are among the top 40 in college basketball in assists, while ranking inside the top 50 in fewest assists allowed. That's why one my keys for Michigan basketball in this game is winning one-on-one matchups.

Switching screens forces more one-on-one plays from the offense but it can also lead to mismatches that can be taken advantage of which is something Michigan has to be worried about.

The things Michigan does well or has done well recently, should give it a good chance against Auburn, if it can keep doing those things well, which will be much easier said than done.

Here are three reasons why the Wolverines can pull off the upset.

Area 50-1

Michigan basketball has two talented 7-footers and that's not something you see all the time. It can cause problems for teams on both ends of the floor.

The Wolverines run the 4/5 pick-and-roll and if the Tigers choose to switch that action, it will probably give Michigan some favorable matchups.

They still have to finish those opportunities. Auburn wants to create one-on-one matchups on defense, sort of like Michigan does, but Wolf and Goldin can win those matchups. Yet, they have to do it, and probably each score at least 20 points for the Wolverines to advance.

Offensive rebounding

Auburn ranks 246th in terms of offensive rebounds allowed to opponents. Michigan basketball hasn't been spectacular in that area all season, but the Wolverines have 47 offensive boards in their last four games, 28 of which were in the first two NCAA tournament games.

In three of the past four games, Michigan has pulled down at least 13 offensive rebounds. Auburn allows 10.7 per game.

Honestly, stopping Auburn on defense will be tough, outside of the Tigers having an off night from the floor. They just seem to have an answer for almost every question. So a big key for Michigan is scoring close to 1.2 points-per-possession.

If the Wolverines have a night like that offensively, they can win, and having a big night on the offensive glass would help, a lot.

Transition points

The Wolverines beat Texas A&M by getting stops and scoring in transition. They took advantage of the press when the Aggies applied it and getting out in transition might be one of the best ways to attack Auburn.

The Tigers are a stellar defensive team. They can press, but don't do it that much. The Tigers don't help much and do a great job of man-to-man defense.

So if Michigan is going to win, it needs some easy buckets and maybe some transition 3-pointers. Auburn is one of the best in the country at limiting 3-pointers (65th, especially off of assists.

So the Wolverines need some easy buckets in transition and frankly, they just need their offense to be lights out to win.

Schedule

Schedule