After a somewhat shaky performance against Wake Forest earlier this week, Michigan basketball will hit the road for the first time, with a true road game against TCU.
Speaking of shaky starts, that's the perfect way to describe TCU's start to the 2025-26 season. The Horned Frogs dropped their season opener against New Orleans from the Southland Conference, 78-74 on their home floor.
They have since defeated St. Francis (PA) and Lamar. Their roster is a mixture of transfers and home-grown talent, inclduing two sophomores who start after playing extensive minutes of the bench as freshman.
Micah Robinson and David Punch, two true sophomores, who started a few games last season, are the leading scorers for TCU. Robinson (12.7 ppg) is 6-foot-6. Punch (14.0 ppg) is 6-foot-7 and each is shooting exactly 50 percent from 3-point range this season.
Michigan basketball dropped to 15th in the Kenpom rankings after winning by one point as a 15-point favorite against Wake. TCU is ranked 91st. Here are three keys and a prediction.
Shoot the ball better
One reason that Wake Forest was able to hang around and nearly upset the Wolverines is that Michigan basketball shot just 16 percent from beyond the arc (4-of-25).
Roddy Gayle made a clutch 3-pointer down the stretch to help push the game to overtime but after scoring 121 points in the opener, Michigan managed just .95 points per possession.
Defensively, the Wolverines held Wake to 0.93. The rim protection of Aday Mara was massive, plus the ability to get key stops down the stretch.
TCU hasn't been great at getting stops. The Horned Frogs are allowing teams to shoot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc with an average of 7.3 3-pointers allowed. Michigan should be able to exceed that number.
TCU does have a 6-foot-11 center who is averaging nine minutes per game, but there isn't someone who can match up with Mara. The Wolverines should get some open looks because of that. They got plenty against Wake Forest, they just didn't knock them down.
A huge part of the game is creating good shots, but Michigan also needs to be better at making those shots, which they weren't against Wake Forest.
Keep turnover rate under 20 percent
Turnovers were a bit of an issue for Michgan, with turnovers on 17 percent of its possessions earlier this week against Wake Forest.
As long as that number doesn't get higher than that, Michigan should be able to out-talent the Horned Frogs, who have just one top-100 recruit in their starting lineup (Micah Robinson).
They need extra possessions and they have done a decent job of forcing turnovers this season, with 14.7 forced per game. TCU averages eight steals and five blocks per game. They are an aggressive defense. Wake Forest was able to apply some pressure and tested Michigan's ball-handling.
TCU will surely try the same tactic, especially if Michigan uses its big starting lineup with Yaxel Lendeborg at the three.
Crash the boards
New Orleans had a turnover rate of 21 percent when it beat TCU on the road, but was able to overcome that because it rebounded 40.7 percent of its misses.
TCU was better in the last two games. Yet, even Lamar rebounded 27 percent of its misses. Rebounding is an issue for the Horned Frogs. It's not a glaring problem and frankly, Michigan hasn't been an elite offensive rebounding team. U-M got 21 percent of its misses against Oakland and 32 percent against Wake Forest.
Yet, it seems like Michigan basketball should be able to get much closer than 40 percent. If it does, the Wolverine should leave Texas with a comfortable win.
Michigan vs. TCU Prediction
While this team is highly-touted, Michigan had four new starters in the lineup, compared to last season against Wake Forest. It's going to take time for this team to gel. It will also take time for Dusty May to find the ideal lineup.
Yaxel Lendeborg hasn't quite found his form yet. Aday Mara has. Morez Johnson is also leading the Big Ten in field-goal percentage (73 percent), while Elliot Cadeau is dishing out 10.5 assists per game, tops in the Big Ten.
Jamie Dixon's squad is scrappy. They can shoot the ball well, too. TCU made 12 3-pointers in one of its two wins, and averaged 9.5 3-point field goals per win. Yet, Michigan's size, and a better shooting night, will allow the Wolverines to get another road win, while covering the spread.
Michigan 89, TCU 77