Michigan basketball and Oregon are two programs heading in opposite directions this season. The Wolverines are 15-1, ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll, while Oregon is 8-9, despite a roster that features five players ranked in the top 51 overall.
Oregon is fresh off a butt-whooping at the hands of Nebraska. What's even worse for the Ducks is that their 7-foot center and leading scorer, Nathan Bittle, will be "out a while," according to Oregon head coach Dana Altman.
The only other player on the Oregon roster who scores more than 12 per game is Jackson Shelstad, but he's also not expected to play due to injury, and Oregon will be missing over 31 points per game from its usual lineup.
Winning road games in the Big Ten still isn't easy. Oregon is capable as a 3-point shooting team, but what the Ducks do really well is offensive rebound (13.4 40th per game). Bittle is their second-best offensive rebounder and their best shot-blocker. He's responsible for more than 50 percent of their blocked shots, which against the best 2-point offense in college hoops, isn't a good sign.
You can see why Michigan basketball is an 18.5-point favorite on the road. Here are three keys and a prediction.
Dictate the tempo
Nebraska ran all over the Ducks earlier this week. The Huskers scored 90 points on Oregon, playing more of an up-tempo style. Oregon is 229th in adjusted tempo via Kenpom. Michigan basketball is sixth.
The faster the game the more things are in favor of the Wolverines.
Take advantage of Oregon's weakness
Oregon was already a poor 2-point defense. Nebraska shot 62.5 percent on 2-point field goals. For the season, the Ducks have allowed 50 percent on 2-point attempts to opponents.
The Wolverines are shooting 64.7 percent on 2-point attempts, which leads college basketball. If that battle plays out as expected, the Wolverines will control the game.
Be sharp
By all metrics, the Wolverines should control this game. Oregon's offense is down two scores, one of which who happens to be their best shot blocker and offensive rebounder.
This feels like a Penn State-Michigan level mismatch, which is the point. That game shouldn't have been close either. The defensive effort was better against Washington, particularly in the second half.
If this team wants to be a No. 1 seed and win the Big Ten championship, it will handle business against Oregon Saturday afternoon (4 PM EST, Peacock).