Indiana might be a football school now. One night after the Hoosiers knocked off Miami to win the national championship, the basketball team, now overshadowed, will travel to Ann Arbor to take on the third-ranked Michigan basketball team.
Michigan is 16-1; however, the Wolverines haven't been dominating people as they were earlier in the season. Yaxel Lendeborg has been bothered by an injury, yet some Michigan fans have also been exaggerating Michigan's decline.
The Wolverines went to the Pacific Northwest and won two games by double digits. You aren't going to win every game by 30 points, especially in the Big Ten. The college basketball season is a grind.
The good news is that Michigan, despite its loss, is just one game behind Nebraska and Purdue in the Big Ten. The Wolverines are one of five teams with one loss or fewer after seven games. Winning the Big Ten won't be easy, and no games can be taken for granted.
As far as Indiana, the Hoosiers are 12-6 overall under Darian DeVries and 3-4 in the Big Ten. They are a much different team than we came to expect under Mike Woodson. There is only one top-100 recruit on the entire roster.
Not a single rotation player, who averages over 10 minutes a game, was on the roster last season. The entire lineup consists of transfers. Offensively, Indiana shoots a lot of 3-pointers (28.9, 35th nationally) and makes a lot, too (10.3 per game, 38th). Indiana also shoots 35.6 percent which ranks in the top 100.
About 80 percent of those 3-pointers are made by three players: Lawrence Wilkerson (41.6 percent, 3.4 makes), Tucker DeVries (2.7 makes, 32 percent) and Nick Dorn (1.7 makes, 42 percent).
Indiana doesn't shoot 2-point attempts at a high volume, but they are effective when they do, shooting 59.6 percent (24th), while limiting teams to 46.6 percent on defense (44th).
Michigan is listed as a 15.5-point favorite. Tip-off time is set for 7 PM EST on Peacock, and here are the keys, and a prediction.
The 2-point offense has to get going
When Michigan was dominating teams, it was dominating the 2-point battle. Lately, that hasn't been happening. The Wolverines have been held below 60 percent on 2-point attempts in three consecutive games, which includes the Wisconsin loss. Michigan basketball was right at 60 percent against Penn State, but was up at 65 percent for the season before that. That's dipped to 63.9, and U-M is now second nationally.
In the blowout wins over McNeese State and USC, the 2-point percentage was in the 70s. Yaxel hasn't been finishing well around the rim. The offense just hasn't been as good, and if this team wants to start dominating again, it starts at the rim, and with 2-point offense.
Defend the 3-ball
Indiana doesn't have a true center. 6-foot-11 Reed Bailey and 6-foot-9 Sam Alexis, a Florida transfer, have each started nine games but played in all 18. They average 0.5 3-point attempts per game, combined.
So when Aday Mara is on the floor, look for him to guard one of those players. That doesn't mean he won't be susceptible in ball screens, but Dusty May also threw out some pressure looks at Washington, with some half-court pressure to change things up.
Michigan is the better team; However, if the Hoosiers get hot as Wisconsin did, anything can happen. The 3-point shot is the great equalizer, although the Wolverines have been solid at defending the 3-point shot, allowing just 30.1 percent (41st).
Get Yaxel going again
At one point this season, Lendeborg felt like a shoo-in for Big Ten Player of the Year. That's no longer the case. He's been elite on defense, but he's struggled on offense, to the point that it has become a pattern.
Over the past five games, Lendeborg is shooting just 34 percent from the field (17-of-49). He's shooting just 19 percent from 3-point range in that stretch, and has been held under 14 points in six straight games. He's been held to single digits in two of the past five.
If Michigan fans are wondering why the team isn't dominating, well, the drop-off of Lendeborg's offensive production certainly hasn't helped. He's shooting 67 percent on 2-pointers. At one point, that number was above 70.
But in the past five games, Lendeborg has made just 46 percent of his 2-point attempts. That's over a 20 percent dip. If the Wolverines are going to get right, their best player needs to find his form.
Prediction: Michigan 87, Indiana 71
The Wolverines have been winning, but they haven't covered the spread in four consecutive games. We'll see if that trend continues, but it feels like the Wolverines will start to find their form. The defensive effort needs to be better.
My guess is that it will be, which will spearhead a strong performance, even though the offense might still feel sluggish compared to earlier in the season.