For the second week in a row, Michigan basketball will play a rivalry game on a Friday night.
After beating Ohio State a week ago, Michigan will look to make it 2-0 against rivals this season, with a win over Michigan State in East Lansing.
The Spartans are 19-2. Michigan is 19-1. Both teams are 9-1 in the Big Ten standings. MSU has won four in a row. Tom Izzo is 2-0 against Dusty May. With all that in mind, here are three bold predictions for the Wolverines vs. Spartans.
2-point defense will determine the outcome
This might not be a super bold prediction, but the team that defends the paint area better will win this game. Michigan State and Michigan are two of the best defensive teams in college basketball. They also boast two of the best 2-point defenses in the sport.
Michigan State is first in 2-point percentage allowed during Big Ten play (47.1). Michigan is second at 47.2 percent allowed. The Spartans have the best 3-point percentage defense in the league, allowing Big Ten teams to shoot just 28.6 percent from beyond the arc, as well as 38.5 percent overall, which also leads the Big Ten.
According to KenPom, the Spartans have the No. 1 adjusted defense in college basketball. Michigan is No. 2. The Spartans have the fifth-best 2-point offense in the Big Ten (58.7 percent). Michigan basketball has the best (63.9). The Wolverines made 70 percent of their 2-point attempts against Nebraska, and they need to be in the 60s to beat Michigan State.
That's 13 percentage points higher than the Spartans' season average. Michigan shoots 18 percentage points higher, and the team that's closer to the mean, in that particular battle, should come out on top.
Given how Michigan has been shooting from deep, it must win the 2-point battle. U-M had a 13-percentage point edge on Nebraska, and a big edge at the free-throw line, which allowed the Wolverines to overcome a poor shooting night.
Spartans will have a big edge at the 3-point line
Michigan has won five games in a row since the loss to Wisconsin, but the shooting woes have been real as the Wolverines have been held under 30 percent from the 3-point line in three of their last five games.
Michigan averages 19 assists per game, and usually assists on 61 percent of its buckets. Michigan State will try to lower that number. They will allow Aday Mara and Morez Johnson to go one-on-one. Their plan is to force an inefficent percentage from those players, while limiting the open looks you can usually get thanks to an aggressive double team.
Tom Izzo will trust his bigs like Jaxson Kohler and Carson Cooper to defend the paint. Coen Carr will be relied on to defend Yaxel Lendeborg. Those will be fascinating matchups. Regardless, Michigan State's aggressive style on defense will limit open 3-point looks, and Michigan, which has been struggling from deep, will shoot below 30 percent again on Friday night.
MSU isn't a great 3-point shooting team. Kohler averages 1.7 makes per game (44.3 percent) so he's dangerous. Divine Uhochukwu, a Miami transfer, has been starting of late, and is shooting 50 percent from 3-point range in Big Ten play with 1.2 makes per game. He's shooting 45 percent on the season, while guys like Kur Teng (36.1) and even Jeremy Fears (28.3 percent) can be dangerous. Fears scores and creates in many different ways, but can get hot from deep, too, from time to time. The Wolverines also rank 10th in 3-point defense during conference play.
Michigan State will score more at the 3-point line; the question is, how much? If the difference is 11 makes to six, like it was against Nebraska, that will spell trouble for the Wolverines.
A defensive battle ensues
The over/under for this game is 145. That means a game projected to be in the low 70s. It's certainly possible that these two teams get hot, make shots, and exceed that total.
But these are the two best defensive teams in college basketball for a reason. The Wolverines haven't been shooting that well as of late. Defense was the reason they beat Ohio State and Nebraska, along with their ability to control the game inside.
The defense will travel to East Lansing. What about the 3-point shooting and rebounding? Keeping the Spartans off the glass will be key. Michigan also needs to rebound about 30 percent of its misses. It has done that five games in a row.
Overall, though, this feels like a game where each team could struggle to score 70.
Prediction
This will be a physical game. This is why Dusty May added guys like Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Johnson. This is the matchup they need to win.
However, beating Michigan State in East Lansing can be a Herculean effort. The Spartans are battle-tested. If this game were in Ann Arbor, I'd give Michigan the nod, but the Wolverines will struggle from the perimeter, and the Spartans will make just enough to win.
Michigan State 69, Michigan 65.