3 bold predictions for Michigan vs. Duke in potential Final Four preview

Three bold predictions for Michigan vs. Duke.
Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Daniel Jacobsen (12) blocks a shot by Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Daniel Jacobsen (12) blocks a shot by Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

It doesn't get much better than No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 3 Duke in the college basketball regular season.

Outside of a game with a conference championship on the line, it doesn't feel like a regular-season game can get bigger than this one.

What's interesting is that neither team will be hurt if they lose this game. Maybe it will help determine who is the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA tournament, but these are two of the four best teams, playing on a neutral floor a few weeks before March Madness begins.

It doesn't get any better than that, like I said before.

In Cameron Boozer and Yaxel Lendeborg, you have two of the best players in college basketball. These are ranked No. 1 (Michigan) and No. 2, according to KenPom. They have the two best defenses, according to KenPom, and have aspirations of winning it all.

Boozer is 6-foot-9, and leading the ACC in scoring (22.9 ppg). He shoots 58 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3-point range. The likely future No. 1 pick also makes 65 percent of his 2-point attempts. There hasn't been a single time this season when he's been held to single digits. 6-foot-6 guard Isaiah Evans is scoring 14 per game, while Patrick Ngongba (6-foot-11) is averaging just over 10.

Duke is loaded with talent and goes nine deep; Michigan basketball does, too. Saturday's game will be fascinating. Here are three bold predictions.

Yaxel slows down Boozer

There have been only four games this season in which Boozer has shot below 50 percent from the field. Saturday's showdown will be the fifth. That doesn't mean he won't score 20 points. Boozer will still score points. He hasn't been limited to single digits all season long.

Boozer also hasn't been defended by anyone quite like Yaxel. They are both 6-foot-9. Lendeborg is older, though. He was the American Defensive Player of the Year, and should be the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year this season.

Boozer will still get some points. It's the efficiency that will take a hit.

Michigan basketball wins battle of offensive rebounds

Two games within the game wil decide things: offensive rebounds and 2-point shooting.

Michigan has been consistently getting above 40 percent in terms of offensive rebounding rate. The Wolverines have done it in five of the last six games. They have rebounded at least 29 percent of their misses in seven straight.

That includes 29.7 at Michigan State and 41 percent at Purdue. Duke is an elite defensive rebounding team. They have the size to match up with Michigan.

Michigan has struggled at times with offensive rebounds, but the Wolveriners will pull down at least 30 percent of their misses against Duke, and they will rebound at a higher rate than the Blue Devils.

Michigan will also win the 2-point battle slightly. This is the Aday Mara game.

Defensive battle

Michigan and Duke are the two best defensive teams in college basketball. Saturday's game will reflect that. The Wolverines could have some turnover issues. I don't see either team shooting the ball well from deep, and it will be a defensive battle, one that the Wolverines will find a way to win.

Prediction: Michigan 65, Duke 62.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations