Michigan basketball is back in the Sweet 16 for the eighth time in the past 12 years and the Wolverines return with their third head coach in that time.
After taking over for Juwan Howard following an eight-win season, literally the worst season in the history of Michigan basketball, first-year head coach Dusty May has the Wolverines facing top-seeded Auburn Friday night in the Sweet 16.
That was after a 10-point come-from-behind win over Texas A&M. Michigan is on a five-game postseason winning streak that started by winning the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan lost the last three games of the regular season, but turned it around, and has now won five games in a row. Top-seeded Auburn will be a major test. The Tigers are 9.5-point favorites, have 30 wins, and have feasted on quad-1 opponents this season. They boast a co-favorite for National Player of the Year in Johni Broome, plus a lineup loaded with talented shooters, which includes four players who averaged at least 1.5 3-point field goals per game this season.
Yet, they haven't been as dominant down the stretch or even in the NCAA tournament. The matchup isn't as bad as it could be for Michigan basketball, and with all that in mind, here are three bold predictions for the Wolverines vs. Auburn.
Vlad and Danny Wolf will shine
One of the most important battles of the game will be in the paint. Michigan has maybe the best tandem of bigs in all of college basketball.
Danny Wolf is an NBA talent. He's figuring out how to utilize all of his skills, and sometimes, it's a little sloppy, but when Wolf is on, he looks like a top-10 pick.
That's the Danny Wolf Michigan basketball needs tonight. Auburn doesn't help a ton. They don't double-down for steals as much, they switch and trust their players to play defense.
That will work against most teams and it could work against Michigan. The key will be getting the ball to Vlad and Wolf, Michigan's best one-on-one players. Auburn could adjust its scheme, but my thought is that they will play it mostly straight up, which will give Vlad and Danny opportunities.
I don't know if the bigs will score enough to win, because Michigan will need to score a lot of points, but I'm predicting that Goldin and Wolf combine for 40 points.
Johni Broome is held under 50 percent shooting
Johni Broome is going to get his. The 6-foot-10 forward has so many tools in his arsenal that even containing him will be difficult.
The one issue with Broome is that he's battled some injuries. He hasn't shot the ball quite as well of late so that's something to watch. So is the fact that he tends to play well in Auburn's losses. Only once was he held to single digits in a loss this season.
In fact, his average of 20.5 points per game in the Tigers five losses was higher than his normal scoring average. Beating Auburn isn't necessarily about stopping Broome. You have to stop the others around him.
Michigan basketball can't let Auburn make double-digit 3-pointers, for instance. Miles Kelly is capable of knocking down four or five 3-pointers. He's averaged 2.4 per game this season and shoots 39 percent. Denver Jones shoots 41 percent. Tahaad Pettiford shoots 37 percent and is a dynamic scorer off the bounce.
Stopping Auburn seems impossible, but the best way to win is probably to force Broome to score over Goldin and Wolf as much as possible. The Wolverines need to force a high volume of difficult shots, which Auburn can make, but the length of Michigan will bother Broome and he'll shoot under 50 percent from the field, which will give U-M a shot.
Roddy Gayle has another big game off the bench
No, I don't expect Gayle to knock down four triples and score 26 points off the bench. Yet, Gayle is one of Michigan's better players at getting downhill and attacking.
We saw him do that against Texas A&M. Gayle has scored in double figures in four of his last five games and has to be brimming with confidence after his defining game as a Wolverine.
Auburn is going to challenge Michigan to make plays one-on-one and Gayle is one of the few guys who can consistently get to the bucket and finish.
Maybe he hits one triple, but in the big picture, Gayle hits double figures again.
Score Prediction: Auburn 82, Michigan 77
Michigan has the offensive firepower to keep it close, however, I don't know if their 3-point shooting is good enough to hold up. Auburn's is. I don't think the Tigers will hit 10 3-pointers, but they'll make enough to rally past Michigan and win a close game, although the Wolverines will cover.