Almost a week after a top-10 win on the road over Michigan State, the Michigan basketball team will be back in action Thursday, at home, against Penn State.
For the second time this season, the Nittany Lions will be a massive underdog (+24.5). That was similar to the first game, and Michigan basketball needed a missed 3-pointer at the end of the game to survive.
In this Big Ten title race, where there is no margin for error, that could have been costly. Penn State just won its first Big Ten game of the season over the same Minnesota squad that beat Michigan State on Wednesday night.
The biggest difference between this matchup and the first one is that Penn State will have Kayden Mingo back in the starting lineup. The freshman is averaging 14.1 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.6 reboudns per game.
Ivan Juric will certainy be a name to know, too after he scored 20 points in the first game against Michigan basketball. He was 2-for-5 from deep. That was the first time that Wolverines encountered that issue with Aday Mara. It will be interesting to see how Michigan plays it on Thursday.
Tip-off time is set for 6:30 PM EST on FS1. Here are three bold predictions.
Michigan's offense explodes
Penn State had one of its best defensive performances it has had all season in the first game against Michigan. The Wolverines were held to just 1.04 points per possession. They average 1.21.
Penn State forced 12 turnovers. That was part of it. Michigan also shot just 29 percent from 3-point range. The 2-point offense converted 60 percent of its attempts, which is slightly below the season average.
Mara, Morez Johnson, and Yaxel Lendeborg made just 6 of 12 2-point attempts. It just wasn't an efficient performance. Part of that is playing on the road. But at home, after nearly a week off, the 3-point shooting will be better, and the offense will push for 100.
Penn State has the worst 2-point defense in the Big Ten, and the worst 3-point defense. The Wolverines won't shoot the ball as poorly as they did the first time.
Michigan wins the turnover battle
The Wolverines have struggled with turnovers, averaging 12 per game in Big Ten play (17th). They also lead the Big Ten in takeaways with 12.2 per game.
Michigan leads the Big Ten in blocks, is third in steals, and Dusty May will have some curveballs for Penn State. Whether it's more pressure, more zone, or something else.
Penn State won the turnover battle last time. That's one reason it was able to hang around, but on Thursday night, the Wolveriners will flip the script, forcing double-digit turnovers, while keeping their own in the single digits.
Michigan covers the spread
That first Penn State game started a string of seven straight games that Michigan basketball didn't cover the spread. That changed with a double-digit win over Michigan State on Friday.
We'll see if that got the mojo back. Michigan is 20-1. It's not like the Wolverines have been playing poorly, but they aren't playing as they did in November or December either.
The Big Ten is a slog. The fact that Michigan has only one loss, despite not playing great against Nebraska and some others, is impressive. The Wolverines have found a way to win without their best.
However, now that Yaxel is healthy, it feels like Michigan is due for a blowout win. After a close call before, they will be ready for Penn State, which could spell trouble for the Nittany Lions.
Prediction: Michigan 96, Penn State 70