With four weeks left in the Big Ten men's basketball season, the regular-season champion contenders have reshuffled. Michigan and Illinois are tied for first; Michigan State and Nebraska are tied for third, and Purdue is fifth.
Note that the rankings below is “NET” or the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the ranking system used to help with March Madness selection and seeding. It evaluates teams based on game results, strength of schedule, game location, and per-possession efficiency (net offensive/defensive). It’s included for comparison purposes.
What happened since January 25th
- #3 Michigan 10-1: Defeated Nebraska by three and Michigan State by 11 in top 10 matchups.
- #6 Illinois 10-1: Defeated Nebraska by nine.
- #11 Michigan State 9-2: Defeated Rutgers by nine and lost to Michigan by 11.
- #10 Nebraska 9-2: Lost to Michigan by three and Illinois by nine.
- #8 Purdue 8-3: Lost to Indiana by five and beat Maryland by 20.
Next two games
- Michigan: Feb 5th has Penn St (#131) at home and Feb 8th at Ohio State (#40).
- Illinois: Feb 4th has Northwestern (#70) and Feb 7th at Michigan State.
- Michigan State: Feb 4th at Minnesota (#84) and Feb 7 has Illinois.
- Nebraska: Feb 7th at Rutgers (#159) and Feb 10th has Purdue.
- Purdue: Feb 7th has Oregon (#115) and Feb 10th at Nebraska.
State of Affairs
Michigan basketball is top or near top in rankings and statistics, has no injuries keeping rotational players from playing, although grad student Yaxel Lendeborg’s calf has affected his explosion and shooting.
Illinois is on a heater with their road wins, which highlighted their size. Their offensive rebounding and rim protection are elite. Senior Kylan Boswell, their second-leading scorer and starting guard, will be out for a couple weeks.
Michigan State currently ranks last in the Big Ten for turnovers, but its overall defense is one of the best. Offense, however, is ranked 136th in points per game, which is a familiar stat and story.
Nebraska is on a costly two-game losing streak to Michigan and Illinois. But returning from injury is senior Rienk Mast and freshman Braden Frager.
Purdue is being led by senior trio Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn. But outside of them, only senior Oscar Cluff is scoring double digits with 11 from the post. Smith is less than 100% suffering from a left knee injury sustained against USC, but he’s still Braden Smith.
Professional Prognostications
Still too much basketball to play but that doesn’t stop the experts from crystal ball gazing.
- ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index): As of Feb 3rd, Michigan is still in first with 23.5, with Purdue and Illinois tied for second with 20.7, then Michigan State with 18.9 and Nebraska with 17.8.
- Bart Torvik: Torvik has two scores of interest, the share of the title and the outright winner. As of Feb 4th, he’s got Michigan at 59.5% and 35.6%, Illinois at 50.4% and 27.2%, Nebraska at 18.5% and 5.2%, Michigan State at 6.6% and 1.7%, and Purdue at 0.1% and 0.0%
- Fan Duel: Illinois at +105 has closed the gap with Michigan -110, but Nebraska at +1400, Michigan State at +2700, and Purdue at +3500 are fading.