After escaping Chicago with a win earlier this week, Michigan basketball is back at home on Saturday, with a chance to take one step closer to the Big Ten regular-season championship.
UCLA is 17-7 overall and 9-4 in the Big Ten. The Bruins are ranked 39th via the Kenpom rankings. Michigan basketball is No. 1. The Wolverines have a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings with six games to go.
Led by head coach Mike Cronin, the Bruins have a talented roster with six former top-100 recruits on the roster. Tyler Bilodeau is UCLA's leading scorer with 18.3 points per game. Donovan Dent is a dynamic playmaker (7.1 assists per game) and is the Bruins' second-leading scorer (13.7 ppg).
The Bruins have just two players taller than 6-foot-9 on their roster. One is Xavier Booker, the former Michigan State big man. Steven Jamerson is another, but he only plays 11.8 minutes per game.
There are some interesting storylines for this matchup, with Aday Mara having been on the Bruins last season. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin refused to comment on Mara when asked about him earlier this week.
It will be interesting to see how Michgan responds to a wake-up call on Wednesday that didn't really have any consequences. Looking ahead to Saturday's game (12:45 EST, CBS) here are three predictions.
UCLA's shooting forces Michigan to go small
Both of the starting bigs for UCLA shoot 45 percent from 3-point range. The Bruins rank 17th in all of college basketball (38.5 percent). But they are 303rd in attempts per game.
This feels like a game where the attempts will need to increase. The Book on Michigan is using Mara in ball screens and forcing him to cover in space or 3-point shooters.
UCLA will surely shoot a higher volume out of necessity, and with their shooting prowess, it would't be surprising if Dusty May is forced to use a smaller lineup.
Michigan dominates 2-point battle more than usual
Mara could have an issue defensively, but the Bruins have to guard him, too. UCLA is 248th in defensive 2-point shooting percentage (52.6). They have allowed better than 54 percent in Big Ten play. Michigan basketball ranks in the top five in 2-point offense and defense,
Michigan basketball averages shooting 19 percentage points higher than opponents. UCLA struggles in that area on both ends, while having to adjust to Michigan's size, which will lead to a 20-point (or larger) discrepancy in favor of the Wolverines when it comes to 2-point shooting percentage.
Offensive rebounding will be the X-factor
UCLA ranks 198th nationally in offensive rebounds allowed (10.8 per game). The Bruins have allowed an average of 10 in Big Ten play.
Michigan is pulling down 11.8 offensive rebounds per game. That number is trending up, and it seems like that the Wolverines will have an offensive rebounding rate above 40 percent.
That will make it hard for the Bruins to pull the upset.
Prediction: Michigan 85, UCLA 68
.