After four straight wins, Michigan basketball is within one win of first place in the Big Ten. Purdue comes to Ann Arbor tonight with an 11-2 record in league play.
The Wolverines are 10-2, tied with Michigan State for second place but with a win tonight, Michigan basketball will at least be tied for first, depending on what happens between the Indiana Hoosiers and Spartans in East Lansing, also on Tuesday.
Knocking off Purdue seems like a tall task. The Boilermakers destroyed Michigan basketball at Mackey Arena. The Wolverines struggled with turnovers and Purdue shot lights out in a 27-point win.
Michigan hasn't dropped a game since. They beat Indiana, Oregon, Penn State, and Northwestern all by four points or less. Two of those wins were on the road but still. Michigan basketball played great halves against Indiana and Oregon but struggled to maintain it.
In order to take out Purdue, Michigan will have to play 40 solid minutes of basketball. They can't afford to play well for 10 or 20 minutes and coast home. At times, Michigan looks as good as any team in the country and also at times, it looks like it could lose to any team in the Big Ten, as it did to Minnesota.
I have a feeling we''re going to see the good version of the Michigan basketball team. But for how long? A win tonight and a Big Ten championship starts to feel like a realistic goal. With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for Michigan basketball vs. Purdue.
Michigan will cut the turnovers in half
It's really hard to win a basketball game when you turn the ball over on 26 percent of your possessions but that's what Michigan basketball did in the first meeting against Purdue, a 91-64 loss that wasn't even that close.
Michigan turned the ball over 22 times. 14 of those turnovers were the results of steals and 14 came from the Wolverines' three best players -- Tre Donaldson, Vlad Goldin, and Danny Wolf.
Purdue leads the Big Ten in turnovers forced per game. Michigan basketball turns the ball over more than any team during Big Ten play. However, allowing 14 steals is ridiculous. That number should be cut in half, along with the total number of turnovers, at least if the Wolverines want to have a chance tonight.
Area 51 bounces back
If Danny Wolf wants to prove that he's a first-round pick, this is a great game to do it. The first Purdue game was one of his worst of the season. Wolf connected on just 1-of-7 shot attempts and had four turnovers. Five of his seven shots were from 3-point range and he missed all five.
The only positive about the first game for Wolf was his three assists. Michigan basketball had 16 as a team. Goldin didn't have a great night either. He made five field goals but needed to be stronger and more decisive with the ball.
Purdue is one of the better teams at defending the 3-point shot in the Big Ten (30.9 percent, 3rd) but the Boilermakers give up 54 percent on 2-point attempts (14th in the Big Ten). They are also last in the league in blocked shots.
Goldin scored 14 last time. Tonight, he will record a 20-point double-double, while Wolf will be much more effective shooting and protecting the ball, giving the tandem at least 35 points and 15 rebounds tonight.
Michigan will win the 3-point battle
There are a few X-factors for Michigan basketball Tuesday night. Taking care of the ball is obviously No. 1. If the Wolverines have 15-20 turnovers, you can probably count on a Purdue win.
However, the Wolverines will also have to make some shots. In games like this, sometimes it comes down to who makes shots and who misses. If Michigan takes care of the ball, it will get good looks.
Purdue made nine 3-pointers the first time around. Michigan made just six. In my final bold prediction, I'm going to say that number is flipped. Taking better care of the ball (a tall task) especially Goldin and Wolf will lead to plenty of open looks. At home, Michigan will knock them down.
At least more than Purdue.
Score prediction: Michigan 79, Purdue 75
This game is going to turn into a track meet. The Wolverines wil start hot, build a double-digit lead and then have to hold on for dear life in the second half. Purdue misses a chance to tie late and the Wolverines notch their sixth quadrant-1 win of the season.