After losses by Nebraska and Illinois on Tuesday night, the Michigan basketball team has a golden opportunity to take control of the Big Ten title race this week.
The Wolverines could also take hold of the No. 1 ranking in college basketball with wins at Northwestern on Wednesday night, as well as a home game against UCLA this weekend.
First things first, though, will be winning a road game against pesky Northwestern, a team that took the Wolverines to overtime last season. Chris Collins also knocked out Dusty May's FAU squad from the NCAA tournament back in 2024.
Northwestern is 10-14 overall and 2-11 in the Big Ten. Nick Martinelli has been a star, scoring 22.1 points per game to lead the Big Ten. The 6-foot-7 forward shoots 52.3 percent from the field and has improved to a 47 percent 3-point shooter this season on 3.0 attempts per game. Jayden Reid, a former USF guard who has played against May before, is scoring 10.2 points per game, while dishing out 5.1 assists.
Northwestern ranks in the top 100 of college basketball in four stat categories: Assists (17.4, 32nd), fewest turnovers (8.2 per game, 2nd fewest), most 2-point field goals made (20.3, 87th) and free-throw percentage (74.8, 84th).
That's not a lot to hang your hat on. Arrinten Page is the 6-foot-11 big man for the Wildcats, who is scoring in double figures, but has struggled recently. All three of those guys will need to be lights out if the Wildcats are going to have any shot as a 15.5-point underdog.
Here are three bold predictions for the Wolverines and Wildcats. Tip-off is at 8:30 PM EST on the Big Ten Network.
Michigan basketball will own the glass
Northwestern is one of the worst rebounding teams in college basketball. Michigan is one of the best. The Wildcats rank 331st in college basketball in total rebounds (32.2 per game). Michigan basketball is eight with 41.8. The Wolverines are pulling down 11.5 offensive rebounds (135th) but their offensive rebounding percentage is 40 percent, which is in the top 10 nationally.
Michigan is averaging 9.3 offensive rebounds per game in Big Ten play. The Wolverines will exceed that number and will rebound at least 40 percent of their misses.
Michigan takes the 2-point battle handily
Outside of rebounding, one of the most important stats going into this game is the 2-point battle. According to Dylan Burkhardt of UM Hoops, Northwestern is 9-4 when it shoots better than 50 percent on 2s, but 3-11 when opponents shoot better than 50 percent.
Michigan basketball has the No.1 2-point offense in the Big Ten (61.1 percent) and the No. 1 2-point defense (47.0). The Wildcats are 15th on offense (49.4) and 11th defensively (54.6 percent).
That doesn't bode well for Wednesday night. The Wildcats will be aggressive with double teams, sort of like Nebraska, trying to get Michigan away from the rim. but the Wolverines will have at least a double-digit edge on 2-point shooting percentage.
Northwestern covers the spread
The Wildcats are pesky and much better than their record indicates. Northwestern is 68th overall via KenPom. Northwestern is 77th in the NET rankings, so just two spots away from this being a quadrant-1 opportunity for U-M.
Northwestern was just recently beaten by 40 by Illinois. Yet, that was on the road. The Wildcats have played Michgan State and Illinois within 11 points. They also gave Nebraska tough game before fading.
Northwestern is good at slowing the tempo. They don't turn the ball over and get a good shot on most of their trips. Michigan will overpower Northwestern, but if the Wolverines don't shoot well from the perimeter, this will be a battle.
Expect thew Wildcats to muck it up enough to cover the spead, even though the Wolverines still win the game by double digits.
Prediction: Michgan 77, Northwestern 65.